VW Axes US ID.4 EV as Adoption Stalls: Legacy Trucks Surge While Pure EV Plays Reel
On April 9, 2026, Volkswagen confirmed it is discontinuing its all-electric ID.4 SUV from the US lineup, redirecting resources to high-margin gas-powered SUVs amid slumping EV demand. TechCrunch reported the move as a stark acknowledgment of consumer preference for affordable internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, with VW citing insufficient sales to justify continued investment. This retreat by a major player underscores a broader US EV adoption slowdown, where legacy automakers like Ford and GM are pivoting back to profitable trucks and hybrids, while pure-play EV makers and battery suppliers grapple with inventory gluts and cash burn.
Over the past 12 months, US EV market share has flatlined below 8%, down from 2024 peaks, per recent filings and earnings calls. Regulatory tailwinds like IRA credits persist, but high prices, charging infrastructure gaps, and tariff hikes on Chinese components have deterred mass adoption. GM explicitly cited the slowdown in its Q4 2025 call, selling an EV plant stake to ramp ICE production. Ford's Blue segment—ICE and hybrids—now anchors profitability. Meanwhile, pure EVs like Rivian's R1 face delivery cuts, Lucid battles liquidity, and lithium giant Albemarle posts losses amid price crashes. Here's who wins and loses.
Ford (F): Truck Kingpin Cashes In on Hybrid Pivot
Ford's strategy shines brightest in this environment. CEO Jim Farley emphasized in the Q4 2025 earnings call a shift to affordable EVs but doubled down on Ford Blue's ICE/hybrids like F-Series trucks and Broncos, which generated stable EBIT. Ford Blue, encompassing ICE SUVs and service parts, remains the profit engine, with hybrids offsetting EV losses in Model e. SEC filings highlight Ford Blue's focus on ICE/hybrids outside core EV markets.
| Metric | Value (TTM/FY2025) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $48B |
| Revenue | ~$176B (est. from growth) |
| Revenue Growth TTM | +1.2% |
| Gross Margin TTM | 6.5% |
| EV/Sales TTM | 0.95x |
| P/E TTM | N/A (thin profits) |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | -17% / -12% / -12% |
Verdict: Strong buy—Ford's $6-6.5B 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance (despite tariffs) and $2-3B FCF underscore ICE resilience. At 0.25x sales, it's a defensive value play.
General Motors (GM): Pickup Dominance Fuels Rebound
GM leads US full-size pickups and SUVs, capturing highest market share in a decade per its Q4 2025 call. Facing EV weakness, GM sold an EV plant share, pivoted capacity to ICE, and raised 2026 EBIT to $13-15B with 8-10% North America margins. OnStar and Super Cruise add high-margin software revenue from ICE fleets.
| Metric | Value (TTM/FY2025) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $72B |
| Revenue Growth TTM | -1.3% |
| Gross Margin TTM | 6.3% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | 1.6% |
| P/E TTM | 25x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | -10% / -9% / -10% |
Verdict: Top conviction buy—$9-11B automotive FCF guidance and $6B buyback signal undervaluation at 0.4x sales. GM's truck moat thrives as EVs falter.
Tesla (TSLA): Autonomy Pivot Masks EV Vulnerability
Tesla's EV sales growth stalled at -3% TTM, with Q4 2025 call noting battery constraints and tariff hits. Elon Musk shifted focus to robotaxis (CyberCab production Q2 2026) and Optimus robots, ending Model S/X production for factory conversion. Energy storage grows but faces competition; automotive margins squeezed by FSD subscriptions.
| Metric | Value (TTM/FY2025) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $1.3T |
| Revenue Growth TTM | -2.9% |
| Gross Margin TTM | 18.0% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | 4.6% |
| P/E TTM | 293x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | -4% / -15% / -10% |
Verdict: Hold—EV slowdown caps near-term growth, but AI/robotaxi upside justifies premium if unsupervised FSD delivers by year-end.
Rivian (RIVN): Mass-Market Dreams Deferred
Rivian's 2025 deliveries hit 41.5-43.5K, with positive gross profit but $2.1-1.8B 2026 EBITDA loss on R2 launch costs. VW JV helps, but EV slowdown delays affordable R2 ramp; Q4 2025 call stresses execution amid macro headwinds.
| Metric | Value (TTM/FY2025) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $19B |
| Revenue Growth TTM | +8.4% |
| Gross Margin TTM | 2.7% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | -67% |
| EV/Sales TTM | 3.6x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | -7% / -13% / -21% |
Verdict: Sell—Cash burn and R2 risks amplify in slowdown; 3.5x sales overpays for unproven scale.
Lucid (LCID): Luxury EV Mirage Fades
Lucid doubled Gravity SUV production Q4 2025 but faces 'macro turbulences.' 2026 output at 25-27K vehicles, with midsize platform SOP end-2026 and robotaxi ties to Uber/Nuro. Workforce cuts signal distress amid liquidity crunch.
| Metric | Value (TTM/FY2025) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.9B |
| Revenue Growth TTM | +68% |
| Gross Margin TTM | -93% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | -259% |
| EV/Sales TTM | 2.0x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | 0% / -11% / -11% |
Verdict: Strong sell—Negative margins and $1.2-1.4B CapEx burn spell dilution risk without EV rebound.
Albemarle (ALB): Lithium Glut Crushes Battery Bet
Battery maker Albemarle swung to FY2025 loss on lithium oversupply, revenue down 4% TTM to $5.1B. Q4 2025 call idled Kemerton plant, eyes $660M from JV sales, but 2030 demand up 10% offers cold comfort amid $9/kg prices.
| Metric | Value (TTM/FY2025) |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $20B |
| Revenue | $5.1B |
| Revenue Growth TTM | -4.4% |
| Gross Margin TTM | 13.1% |
| EBIT Margin TTM | 1.7% |
| EV/Sales TTM | 4.8x |
| Price Return 1M/3M/YTD | -4% / +21% / +13% |
Verdict: Sell—Cost cuts target positive FCF, but lithium volatility ties fortunes to elusive EV surge.
Investment Verdict: Bet on Legacy ICE Resilience
Ranked conviction: 1. GM (best truck exposure, FCF machine), 2. F (hybrid bridge, dirt-cheap valuation), 3. TSLA (AI wildcard), Avoid: RIVN/LCID/ALB. Legacy pivots validate $20B+ ICE truck market staying power. Pure plays bleed cash without policy miracles.
Risks to Watch: IRA credit cuts under new admin, China EV dumping escalation (monitor tariffs >25%), Q2 2026 deliveries—if GM/F hybrids beat EV guidance by 10%+, thesis strengthens. Battery prices < $8/kg could revive losers short-term.