Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Earnings
Exxon Mobil Corporation is expected to report next earnings on October 30, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.47. XOM has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +4.5% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | $3.63 | $3.52 | -3.1% | $116.0B | +7.2% |
| May 1, 2026 | $1.00 | $1.16 | +16.5% | $85.1B | +5.2% |
| Jan 30, 2026 | $1.69 | $1.71 | +1.0% | $80.0B | -0.5% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | $1.81 | $1.88 | +3.6% | $83.3B | -3.5% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | $1.57 | $1.64 | +4.1% | $79.5B | -2.2% |
| May 2, 2025 | $1.75 | $1.76 | +0.6% | $81.1B | -5.9% |
| Jan 31, 2025 | $1.77 | $1.67 | -5.9% | $81.1B | -5.8% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | $1.88 | $1.92 | +2.4% | $87.8B | -2.0% |
| Aug 2, 2024 | $1.99 | $2.14 | +7.4% | $90.0B | -2.4% |
| Apr 26, 2024 | $2.19 | $2.06 | -6.1% | $80.4B | -1.5% |
| Feb 2, 2024 | $2.22 | $2.48 | +11.6% | $81.7B | -4.1% |
| Oct 27, 2023 | $2.44 | $2.27 | -6.9% | $88.6B | +4.1% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · July 31, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Conflict Response and Operational Resilience - The ongoing Middle East conflict disrupted approximately 10% of the company's upstream production, but the firm's globally diversified, scaled production portfolio enabled it to absorb the disruption and deliver strong results - Global trading and supply chain teams mitigated roughly $750 million in annual disruption costs via advanced modeling, fleet reallocation, product reformulation, and alternate supply sourcing, keeping operations running and customers supplied ### Major Growth Project Updates - Guyana: Fifth FPSO departed for Guyana in June and remains on track for end-of-year startup; Longtail project is progressing toward a final investment decision, and a ninth FPSO is under evaluation. Capital and cost recovery was completed nearly two years ahead of schedule, boosting project net present value and triggering cost bank desaturation - Permian Basin: New technologies (including 4-mile extended reach laterals, remote real-time operations) are driving improved resource recovery and lower capital costs; 80+ four-mile wells were drilled in the first half of the year, with the company holding an industry-leading position in long-lateral development ### Organizational and Digital Transformation - On July 1, the company integrated Upstream Operations into a new unified global operations organization, bringing together 31,000 employees across 150 sites in 48 countries; this industry-first model is designed to improve safety, reliability, cost efficiency, and margins across all assets - Enterprise-wide end-to-end process and data platform transformation is progressing well, with early deployments complete and larger rollouts planned for 2027; the transformation will enable faster decision-making, better scale leverage, and accelerated AI adoption - Cumulative structural cost savings since 2019 have reached $16.3 billion, with centralized organizations contributing nearly half of year-to-date savings ### Financial and Corporate Milestones - The quarter generated over $14 billion in earnings, over $17 billion in free cash flow, and reduced net debt by more than $7 billion - Cash capital expenditures totaled roughly $7 billion, and the company returned more than $9 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases - Shareholder-approved redomiciliation of Exxon Mobil from New Jersey to Texas was completed on July 1, aligning the company's legal home with its operating headquarters
Guidance
- No explicit full-year financial guidance revisions were provided in this call. Management reaffirmed its focus on value creation over production volume growth for all projects, particularly in Guyana - The company expects to double Guyana free cash flow between 2025 and 2030 following the completion of cost recovery and the inflection to higher free cash flow generation - The annual Global Outlook report covering global energy demand and supply projections through 2050 will be published in September, forming the basis for the company's long-term planning - FIDs for Mozambique and Papua New Guinea LNG projects are expected by the end of 2024, with Golden Pass LNG on track for startup
Segment performance
Upstream: Despite a temporary 10% production loss tied to Middle East conflict, non-Middle East upstream production hit its highest level in over two decades. Guyana delivered gross production of 900,000 barrels per day, and Permian Basin production hit a record 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. The segment delivered industry-leading earnings of $14.5 billion for the quarter, with total operating cash flow of $23.6 billion. Energy Products (Refining): Integrated U.S. Gulf Coast refining operations achieved record Q2 diesel production amid tight global diesel supply. Operational reliability exceeded 95% for the quarter, and the business has delivered a step change in earnings following portfolio high grading, now contributing approximately 9% of total corporate earnings. Chemical Products: North American facilities benefited from advantaged feedstock and record first-half reliability, offsetting Middle East supply disruptions and driving an approximate 180% increase in chemical product margins compared to Q1. Specialty Products: Delivered best-ever base stock margins, alongside record quarterly and first-half adjusted earnings, supported by integrated value chain capabilities, reformulation expertise, and strong execution despite broad supply chain challenges.
Risks & headwinds
- Ongoing conflict in the Middle East creates persistent operational, supply chain, and market uncertainty: increased attacks and volatility in the Strait of Hormuz have reduced shipping companies' willingness to transit the waterway, which could constrain global energy supplies even after immediate tensions de-escalate as confidence recovers slowly - The ongoing territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana places a large portion of ExxonMobil's undeveloped Guyana acreage under force majeure, pending a ruling from the International Court of Justice, delaying exploration activity - Proposed and implemented windfall profit taxes on downstream operations in Europe are considered misguided policy that will reduce future investment in European refining capacity, leading to ongoing supply shortages and higher consumer prices; the company is already suing the EU over previous windfall tax measures - Exploration for new resources in underexplored Guyana acreage remains subject to technical and regulatory uncertainty, with new discovery opportunities still requiring confirmation drilling
Analyst Q&A
Q: Analysts ask for clarification on Guyana cost desaturation, exploration outlook, and the link between lower production entitlements and free cash flow. /
A: Fast, low-cost project execution (two years ahead of schedule) and higher-than-expected commodity prices accelerated capital cost recovery, triggering desaturation earlier than planned. Even without high commodity prices, recovery is two years accelerated due to industry-leading execution and FPSO reliability above 98%. Under the production sharing agreement, after full cost recovery, a larger share of revenue converts to free cash flow rather than cost recovery, creating a clear positive inflection in free cash flow even as entitled production volume declines slightly. AI exploration tools have identified four new prospective discoveries in existing Guyana acreage, and additional underexplored acreage will be explored once the Venezuela border dispute is resolved, with growth potential still untapped. Desaturation increases 2030 Guyana free cash flow to double the 2025 level.
Q: What is your outlook for refining markets, why were Q2 refining earnings softer than analyst expectations, and how are you adjusting maintenance to current high margins? /
A: Global refining capacity is constrained by approximately 3 million barrels per day of offline capacity from China's export bans, Russian capacity disruptions from the Ukraine war, creating a sustained environment of high margins. Q2 earnings variations relative to consensus stem from volatility and disruption-related moving parts, not underlying underperformance; the company's refined portfolio reliability exceeded 95% in the quarter, and the business has seen a step change in earnings after years of portfolio high grading. The company strategically defers safely deferrable planned maintenance to capture current high margins, and has improved turnaround costs by 30% and duration by 60% compared to prior cycles, allowing it to minimize downtime when margins are high. Long-term, the company has reconfigured refineries to increase diesel and jet production by 15% over three years, a structural shift to higher-value products.
Q: How does ExxonMobil evaluate new partnership opportunities from resource-rich governments, and how does the firm assess associated project risks? /
A: First, new opportunities must clear a high hurdle: projects must deliver advantaged low-cost supply and above-market returns leveraging ExxonMobil's unique execution capabilities, regardless of external interest. The company maintains a broadly diversified portfolio to avoid overexposure to any single geographic or political risk, and actively monitors portfolio risk balance to ensure resilience to unexpected events. The firm's track record of delivering large megaprojects 20% faster and 20% cheaper than the industry average has made it the partner of choice for resource-rich governments, with the company currently developing twice as many megaprojects as peer international oil companies.