Venture Global, Inc. (VG) Earnings

Management highlights

- Quarterly Operational Milestones • Achieved the largest ever quarterly EBITDA of $2.5 billion, with double-digit year-over-year growth across all key financial metrics. Exported 127 cargoes in Q2 2026, at the high end of the expected production range, and hit the 1,000th total cargo milestone just four years after the first commercial cargo in March 2022, maintaining a strong safety record. • Completed over 2 MTPA of new or increased LNG offtake agreements with new and existing customers, and the 2026 contracted portfolio increased to 91% from 84% reported in Q1 2026. Completed planned major maintenance at Kakashi Pass with inconsequential production impact due to the company's modular, redundant facility configuration. - Capital Structure and Shareholder Returns • Refinanced over $5.3 billion in cumulative capital (term loans, bonds, preferred equity), reducing annual interest and coupon obligations by more than $100 million. Added a new $1.5 billion term loan for nine previously cash-funded LNG carriers, with total cumulative capital raised/refinanced exceeding $103 billion to date. • The board approved a 122% increase in quarterly common dividends to $0.04 per share, to reward shareholders and reflect confidence in cash flow resiliency. - Project Development and Expansion Progress • CP2 construction (just over one year post-FID) is progressing on time and on budget: all four LNG storage tanks have roofs installed, 16 fabricated liquefaction modules are on-site, and five power turbines are set on foundations. The company built its own large Herzigs (heat recovery steam generators) in-house, removing a key construction bottleneck and streamlining the timeline to first LNG. • FERC application filed for the 10 MTPA CP2 expansion (within the existing CP2 footprint), with long-lead equipment already ordered; final investment decision (FID) targeted for early 2027, with first LNG in late 2028. For the Plaquemines full 31 MTPA multi-phase expansion, FID is targeted for the first half of 2027, with first phase (6.4 MTPA) production expected in 2029; a new North Louisiana Cloud Connector pipeline will be built to support the expansion. Once all expansions are online, total expected production capacity across all projects will reach 85 MTPA, with 53 MTPA currently committed under long/medium-term contracts, and 32 MTPA of excess expansion capacity available for contracting. - Industry and Portfolio Strategy • The company uses a balanced portfolio approach: all nameplate capacity of the first three projects is already contracted, while the 32 MTPA of excess expansion capacity will be contracted via a mix of long-term agreements (to support financing) and higher-return medium/short-term contracts (to retain upside option value). Historical data from 2010 to 2026 shows average net liquefaction fees exceed $6 per MMBTU for shorter-term contracts, creating significant additional upside value. • LNG demand remains resilient despite Middle East supply disruptions: Asian imports have rebounded, high temperatures in Asia/Europe have increased power demand, industrial demand is relatively inelastic, and European gas inventories are well below normal levels, pointing to higher winter demand and pricing.

Guidance

- 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $8.7 to $9.1 billion, up from the prior range of $8.2 to $8.5 billion. The increase is driven by stronger-than-expected operational execution, higher production confidence, and current favorable LNG market outlook. - A broader-than-usual guidance range is maintained due to outsized LNG price volatility from Middle East events; the range is expected to be tightened after the third quarter as remaining 2026 volumes are contracted. - A $1 per MMBTU change in fixed liquefaction fees for the remainder of 2026 would shift 2026 adjusted EBITDA by $180 to $210 million, reflecting the current 91% contracted position. For 2027, a $1 per MMBTU change in liquefaction fees would shift EBITDA by $650 to $700 million, reflecting significant production growth from upcoming projects. - The full year 2026 cargo production range midpoint has been tightened and raised, reflecting improved operational confidence and strong summer production performance after investments to reduce warm weather output impacts.

Segment performance

Venture Global reports consolidated results for the second quarter 2026 with no separate product segment breakdowns provided. Total consolidated revenue was $4.6 billion, a 48% increase year-over-year from $3.1 billion in Q2 2025. Income from operations was $2.2 billion, a 111% increase from $1.0 billion in Q2 2025. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.3 billion, a 266% increase from $368 million in Q2 2025. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $2.5 billion, a 79% increase from $1.4 billion in Q2 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 54% for the quarter. Revenue growth was driven by $1.3 billion from higher sales volumes (466 TBTU in Q2 2026 vs 329 TBTU in Q2 2025) and $102 million from higher net LNG sales prices.

Risks & headwinds

- Ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict has created significant outsized LNG price volatility, increasing uncertainty around near-term market conditions and requiring a broader than usual 2026 guidance range. - Europe currently faces dangerous physical and economic exposure to severe winter weather due to well-below-normal gas inventories, which could create additional market volatility. - Large complex construction projects such as CP2 have tens of thousands of work scopes, creating inherent execution uncertainty that leads management to maintain conservative timeline guidance despite strong current progress. - There is ongoing arbitration related to Calcasieu Pass, with resolution timelines controlled by third-party arbitration processes, creating uncertainty around the timing and outcome of remaining disputes.

Analyst Q&A

• Q: What are the core drivers of the large 2026 EBITDA guidance increase, and what would a $1 per MMBTU change in liquefaction fees mean for 2027 EBITDA? /

  A: The primary driver is strong, consistent operational execution across the company's facilities, which demonstrates the unique redundancy of Venture Global's modular facility configuration that allows high output even during major maintenance. Combined with conservative forecasting for remaining 2026 LNG market prices, this increased production confidence supports the guidance upgrade. For 2027, management states a $1 per MMBTU change in liquefaction fees would impact EBITDA by $650 to $700 million, reflecting the large production growth from CP2 and planned bolt-on expansions that will come online by that point.

• Q: How have Middle East disruptions changed customer contracting behavior, and what is driving the higher full-year volume outlook? /

  A: Prior to the recent Hormuz conflict, the company was heavily focused on 20-year long-term contracts, and 20-year contracting activity remains steady. Over the past 90 days, there has been a noticeable uptick in interest in shorter and medium-term (e.g. 5-year) contracts as customers face more market uncertainty. The higher full-year volume outlook comes from growing operational experience and process data from the ongoing ramp-up of Plaquemines phase 1, improved clarity around planned maintenance schedules, and better-than-expected warm weather production performance after targeted investments to reduce summer output impacts.

• Q: What is the company's target steady-state portfolio mix of long/medium/short-term contracts, and what is the contracting strategy for the new brownfield expansion projects? /

  A: The company's target mix retains 100% contracted nameplate capacity (which supports investment-grade project financing, a requirement already met for the core first three projects), while the incremental excess capacity from bolt-on expansions will be a mix that is weighted more toward medium and shorter-term contracts. This mix captures the significant historical option value of shorter-term contracts, which have delivered substantially higher average prices than 20-year long-term contracts over the past 16 years. For brownfield expansions, the timeline from FID to first production is much shorter (18-20 months) than traditional greenfield LNG projects, so less long-term contracting is required for financing, giving the company more flexibility to pursue higher-return medium-term contracts.

• Q: What is the rationale for the large 122% dividend increase now, and how should investors think about future dividend growth? /

  A: The dividend increase is a partial catch-up, as Venture Global's dividend yield was significantly below peer group levels even after this hike, since the company only recently initiated its dividend. It also reflects the growing maturity of the business, with over $60 billion in assets now, strong 2026 cash flow projections, and solid execution on core projects, giving the board confidence the increase is sustainable. Management plans to continue growing the dividend over time, and as the capital program matures, additional capital return via share repurchases may also be pursued.