Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Earnings
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on November 5, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.49. TXRH has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -3.5% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $1.83 | $1.85 | +1.1% | $1.7B | +0.4% |
| May 7, 2026 | $1.80 | $1.87 | +4.1% | $1.6B | +0.0% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $1.54 | $1.28 | -16.8% | $1.5B | -8.4% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $1.28 | $1.25 | -2.6% | $1.4B | +0.4% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $1.91 | $1.86 | -2.6% | $1.5B | +0.5% |
| May 8, 2025 | $1.77 | $1.70 | -4.1% | $1.4B | +0.2% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | $1.64 | $1.73 | +5.7% | $1.4B | +2.2% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $1.32 | $1.26 | -4.4% | $1.3B | -9.4% |
| Jul 25, 2024 | $1.64 | $1.79 | +9.4% | $1.3B | +0.2% |
| May 2, 2024 | $1.63 | $1.69 | +3.9% | $1.3B | -0.3% |
| Feb 15, 2024 | $1.06 | $1.08 | +2.0% | $1.2B | +0.3% |
| Oct 26, 2023 | $1.06 | $0.95 | -10.5% | $1.1B | -0.1% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Overall Performance * Delivered strong top-line momentum in Q2 2026, with the first ever average weekly sales exceeding $175,000 in the company's 33-year history * Positive dining sales and mix trends, alongside sustained growth in the to-go business, continued into the first five weeks of Q3 2026, with comparable sales up 6.2% in that period * Strong traffic growth (3% YoY in Q2) is driven by guest satisfaction with the brand's value, food quality, and hospitality, outperforming broader industry traffic trends - Development Pipeline * Total 2026 target remains ~35 company-owned openings across all brands, with 9 completed in Q2, 6 scheduled for Q3, and the remainder planned for Q4 (opening volume is weighted to the second half of the year as planned) * 1 international Texas Roadhouse franchise opening occurred in Q2; up to 5 additional international openings and 2 domestic Jaggers franchise openings are expected in H2 2026 * The core Texas Roadhouse brand has a full, strong development pipeline through 2029, with a long-term target of ~900 total system locations maintained - Menu and Pricing * A 1% menu price increase is scheduled for the start of Q4 2026, designed to balance offsetting structural inflation while preserving the brand's everyday value proposition * The brand has a long-standing conservative approach to pricing, prioritizing maintaining guest value alongside operating needs, with pricing reviews conducted biannually in consultation with restaurant operators - Operational Efficiency * Labor productivity maintained a positive trend, with labor hours growing at only 25% of the rate of comparable traffic growth * Productivity gains are driven by cumulative technology investments (digital kitchens, guest management systems, handheld ordering), high staff tenure, managing partner staffing strategy, and growth of the to-go business
Guidance
- Full year 2026 commodity inflation guidance was revised downward, from the prior 6% to 7% range to approximately 5%, after Q2 2026 commodity inflation came in at 7% (the bottom end of the prior forecast range) * Q3 2026 commodity inflation is now expected to be 2% to 3% (lower than prior forecasts), driven by falling sirloin prices; Q4 2026 is expected to see ~5% commodity inflation * Non-beef commodity inflation saw a small uptick in produce prices, but no material overall change 80% of the full commodity basket is locked for Q3 2026, and 40% is locked for Q4 2026, consistent with the company's historical contracting position at this point in the year - Full year 2026 labor inflation guidance is maintained at 3% to 4%, matching Q2's in-line 3.9% result - 2026 capital expenditure guidance is unchanged at approximately $400 million, with capital allocation prioritizing new restaurant development and maintenance of existing locations - Full year 2026 effective income tax rate guidance was revised downward, from the prior 14% to 15% range to approximately 14% - Management estimates calendar holiday timing shifts will create an approximately 75 basis point negative impact to Q4 2026 same-store sales growth - Initial 2027 commodity inflation guidance will be provided during the November 2026 quarterly call
Segment performance
Texas Roadhouse (core brand): 755 system-wide locations as of quarter-end; average weekly sales at company-owned locations exceeded $183,000. 20 planned domestic openings in 2026, contributing 5 of the 9 total company openings in Q2 2026. This is the largest brand by location and revenue contribution. Bubba's 33: 59 locations at quarter-end (60th opened post-quarter, first in Iowa); average weekly sales exceeded $129,000 in Q2. At least 10 planned openings in 2026, with 3 of the 9 total Q2 2026 company openings coming from this segment. This is the mid-sized growth brand. Jaggers: 11 company-owned locations at quarter-end; average weekly sales exceeded $76,000 in Q2. 4 total planned company openings in 2026, with 1 of the 9 Q2 2026 company openings coming from this segment. This is the smallest, early-stage brand. Consolidated: Total Q2 2026 revenue approached $1.7 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year; system-wide average weekly sales hit a record $175,000+, with company-wide average weekly sales of $177,000. Same-store sales increased 6.2% YoY, driven by 3% traffic growth and 3.2% average check growth; to-go sales contributed $25,000 (14.3%) of average weekly sales.
Risks & headwinds
- Beef supply remains dynamic and tight, with continued tight supply expected for Q4 2026 despite recent deflation in sirloin prices - The expected Q4 2026 same-store sales headwind from calendar holiday shifts is a known near-term headwind to reported results - California market expansion faces ongoing operational complexities common to the region, though management remains confident in long-term opportunity there - Bubba's 33 operates in a more competitive casual dining segment and is a less established brand, requiring sustained focus on local marketing to drive growth
Analyst Q&A
Q: How will Texas Roadhouse approach pricing if inflation moderates meaningfully, after absorbing significant inflation over recent years? /
A: Management maintains a long-standing conservative approach to pricing that prioritizes preserving everyday menu value for guests. Pricing decisions are made biannually in consultation with local restaurant operators, based on annual structural inflation forecasts and local market conditions. This strategy has worked well historically and will remain unchanged going forward, balancing the needs of guests, staff, and shareholders.
Q: What is driving Texas Roadhouse's sustained labor productivity growth, with labor hours growing much slower than traffic, and can this trend continue? /
A: The productivity trend comes from the combined impact of cumulative technology investments that create more efficient kitchen operations, intentional staffing by managing partners, high employee tenure, and growth in the to-go business. Management does not target productivity specifically for operators, but expects the positive trend to continue based on current operational dynamics.
Q: What is the long-term unit growth target for the core Texas Roadhouse brand, and is there any plan to update this target after noting a pipeline extending to 2029? /
A: Management reaffirms the prior long-term target of approximately 900 total Texas Roadhouse system locations, and will not update this guidance at this time. The company remains confident that there is unmet demand for Texas Roadhouse across the U.S., and continues to deliver successful high-volume openings at the planned pace of ~20 new locations per year.
Q: What is the current operating and ownership strategy for the smaller Jaggers brand, given Texas Roadhouse's existing casual dining focus? /
A: Management notes Jaggers is in an early growth stage, and the current mix of both franchise partners and company-owned locations is beneficial. The brand learns from both franchise and company operations, and there are no plans to shift to an all company-owned model at this time. Both ownership formats will continue to be used as the brand grows gradually.