Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Earnings
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on October 19, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $5.41. STLD has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +2.5% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | $3.63 | $3.69 | +1.7% | $6.1B | +9.6% |
| Apr 21, 2026 | $2.83 | $2.78 | -1.8% | $5.2B | +2.1% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $1.72 | $1.82 | +5.8% | $4.4B | -11.3% |
| Oct 20, 2025 | $2.63 | $2.74 | +4.2% | $4.8B | +1.3% |
| Jul 21, 2025 | $2.24 | $2.01 | -10.3% | $4.6B | -3.2% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | $1.38 | $1.44 | +4.3% | $4.4B | +4.2% |
| Jan 22, 2025 | $1.69 | $1.36 | -19.5% | $3.9B | -2.4% |
| Oct 16, 2024 | $1.97 | $2.05 | +4.1% | $4.3B | +3.9% |
| Jul 17, 2024 | $2.67 | $2.72 | +1.9% | $4.6B | +4.6% |
| Jan 23, 2024 | $2.67 | $2.61 | -2.1% | $4.2B | +2.4% |
| Oct 18, 2023 | $3.45 | $3.47 | +0.6% | $4.6B | +11.3% |
| Jul 19, 2023 | $4.83 | $4.81 | -0.5% | $5.1B | -2.9% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · July 21, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Overall Operational and Financial Performance * Achieved record quarterly steel shipments of 3.7 million tons and adjusted EBITDA of $921 million. Net income was $534 million ($3.69 per diluted share), on total revenues of $6.1 billion, with operating income of $700 million, higher than the first quarter 2026. * Generated $428 million in operating cash flow in the quarter, ending with $2 billion in total liquidity, consisting of $800 million in cash and investments and a $1.2 billion fully available unsecured revolver. * Completed $124 million in capital investments in the quarter, bringing year-to-date investments to $262 million. Increased dividends and repurchased $350 million of common stock in the first half of 2026, with $489 million remaining in repurchase authorization at quarter-end. - Market Position and End Market Demand * The domestic North American steel industry operated at 81% utilization in Q2 2026, while Steel Dynamics' steel mills operated at 90% utilization, supported by diversified products and internal downstream operations. * Flat-rolled steel market conditions are strong, with solid demand, lean inventories, and normalized value-added spreads, supported by successful trade case resolutions from 2025. ~80% of flat-rolled business uses lagging 2-month price contracts, so recent price increases will flow to Q3 results. * Long product demand and pricing are on an upward trend, driven by strong non-residential construction. End market demand is also strong for energy (oil/gas, solar), agricultural products, and industrial manufacturing, while residential construction remains subdued. * Steel fabrication backlog is at multi-year highs, with the Dodge Momentum Index up over 30% year-over-year, supported by infrastructure investment, reshoring, and public funding projects. * The U.S. faces a structural 1.4 million metric ton annual deficit of aluminum flat-rolled sheet, which is expected to widen as demand grows, creating a favorable long-term market for domestic production. - Aluminum Startup Progress * The hot side of the Columbus aluminum mill is fully operational; the third cold mill started commissioning in July 2026, enabling full 650,000 metric ton annual nameplate capacity. The first automotive continuous anneal line is fully operational with product qualifications completed for multiple manufacturers, and the second line will start commissioning in Q4 2026. * The aluminum business leverages Steel Dynamics' existing strengths: two-thirds of current steel customers also purchase aluminum flat-rolled, the company's large recycling platform enables high scrap content for lower costs, and the performance-driven culture drives operational efficiency. * Expected through-cycle annual EBITDA for the aluminum platform (at normalized market conditions and full capacity) remains $650-$700 million, plus an additional $40-$50 million for the recycling segment. - Capital Allocation Strategy * Prioritizes high-return growth opportunities while maintaining an investment-grade credit profile, paired with a growing base dividend and flexible share repurchases to return excess capital to shareholders. * Free cash flow has grown substantially from an average of $540 million annually (2011-2015) to $2.4 billion annually over the past five years, supported by $5 billion in transformative growth investments that are expected to generate over $1.4 billion in total through-cycle annual EBITDA.
Guidance
- Capital expenditure guidance for the second half of 2026 is maintained at $300-$350 million. 2027 capital expenditure is expected to be in the range of $500-$600 million at maximum, including growth capital on top of $250-$300 million in baseline sustained capital. - Aluminum operations are expected to ramp sharply in the second half of 2026, with utilization expected to reach at least 90% of nameplate capacity by the end of 2026, with full volume capability achieved in 2027. Volumes and profitability will increase as startup costs decline, utilization and yields improve, and scrap content rises. The aluminum business is expected to become earnings positive in the second half of 2026. - Steel fabrication pricing increases from current backlog will mostly be realized in the next 6-9 months, with strong volume growth expected in the second half of 2026 and into 2027. - Working capital is expected to shift from a use of cash in Q2 to a source of cash (or at least neutral) in the second half of 2026. - Scrap prices are expected to remain relatively stable through the coming months. - The 45% year-over-year backlog increase for steel fabrication is fully volume-based, with no contribution from pricing; price improvement will flow to results gradually over 2026 and 2027.
Segment performance
- Steel Operations: Generated operating income of $721 million, a 30% sequential increase. It contributed ~103% of total second quarter operating income (negative contributions from the aluminum segment offset other positive segments), with record quarterly steel shipments of 3.7 million tons and a $105 per ton increase in average selling price. - Metals Recycling: Generated operating income of $48 million, in line with sequential first quarter results. It contributed ~6.9% of total second quarter operating income. - Steel Fabrication: Generated operating income of $85 million, down slightly from $90 million in the first quarter. It contributed ~12.1% of total second quarter operating income. Order backlog is 45% higher year-over-year, all from volume growth rather than pricing increases. - Aluminum Operations: Reported an operating loss of $33 million (plus a $16 million non-cash impairment charge), a 48% improvement in operating losses sequentially. It contributed -4.7% of total second quarter operating income. Aluminum flat-rolled sheet shipments rose to 53,000 metric tons from 22,500 metric tons in the first quarter, and the mill operated at ~50% utilization on average for the quarter.
Risks & headwinds
- A fatal workplace accident occurred in Q2 2026, leading management to re-emphasize safety as a core cultural value and reinforce goals of achieving a zero-incident workplace. - Increasing steel imports from Asian countries, driven by weak domestic demand in those economies and circumvention of existing Section 232 tariffs, create short-term pricing pressure and market disruption. Management is advocating for stronger enforcement of existing trade rules to address this. - Geopolitical conflict has created near-term volatility in aluminum markets and disrupted global supply chains for primary aluminum and pig iron. - Regional grid reliability and long-term electricity cost increases are a concern for large industrial users, though management noted it has not seen material cost impacts to date and has contract structures that support cost management. - The relocation of the second recycled aluminum casting center has resulted in a $16 million non-cash impairment charge, a $10-$20 million increase in total CapEx for the project, and a slight delay to the ramp-up of internal slab supply, with incremental additional logistics cost.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Steel fabrication backlog is 45% higher year-over-year with improving pricing in new quotes, but Q2 realized pricing was lower than Q1. What is the pricing and margin outlook for the second half of 2026, and how much of the backlog increase is volume vs pricing? /
A: The 45% backlog increase is entirely volume, not pricing. While new backlog has improved pricing levels, many of these projects are scheduled for execution in late 2026 and 2027, so higher realized pricing will not flow to results for 6-9 months. Strong volume growth in the second half is expected, which will offset any lingering margin pressure from higher input steel costs.
Q: Aluminum shipments of 53,000 tons in Q2 came in below the prior 60,000-70,000 ton guidance. What caused the miss, and what is the volume outlook for Q3? /
A: The shortfall was due to minor startup and ramp-up issues including packaging and processing bugs that left some finished material unshippable; there were no major fundamental issues, just the normal learning curve of a new facility. Q3 shipments and utilization are expected to improve significantly, with a sharp ramp after the third cold mill comes online.
Q: Through-cycle EBITDA guidance for aluminum is still $650-$700 million. Could current stronger aluminum spreads lead to upside to this forecast? /
A: Management confirms current aluminum spreads are meaningfully higher than the assumptions built into the $650-$700 million through-cycle guidance. However, the company is focused on completing ramp-up and optimizing operations before updating any long-term forecasts, and will revisit the number once all production units are operational and cost structures are finalized, which is expected by the end of 2026.
Q: Recent increases in U.S. steel imports have been observed. Does this create concern that high domestic pricing is pushing customers to seek foreign steel? /
A: The recent import growth is driven by Asian economies with weak domestic demand dumping excess steel into the U.S. market to avoid domestic gluts, circumventing existing Section 232 tariffs. Management expects the administration will address this disruptive activity and reined in imports in the second half of 2026. The company's reliable on-time delivery remains a strong competitive advantage to retain customers despite lower foreign pricing.