Stem, Inc. (STEM) Earnings
Stem, Inc. is expected to report next earnings on October 28, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $-1.57. STEM has beaten EPS estimates in 6 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -3.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | $-1.75 | $-1.58 | +9.7% | $34M | -8.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | $-2.06 | $-1.55 | +24.8% | $29M | -14.2% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $-1.96 | $-1.85 | +5.6% | $47M | +29.1% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $-1.85 | $-2.84 | -53.5% | $38M | -12.4% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $-3.00 | $-3.73 | -24.3% | $38M | -6.5% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $-4.00 | $-3.00 | +25.0% | $33M | +1.6% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | $-3.20 | $-2.40 | +25.0% | $56M | +16.6% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $-4.00 | $-4.20 | -5.0% | $29M | -41.3% |
| May 2, 2024 | $-4.00 | $-9.20 | -130.0% | $25M | -56.5% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | $-2.40 | $-4.20 | -75.0% | $167M | -35.3% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | $-3.60 | $-3.40 | +5.6% | $134M | -25.2% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | $-4.60 | $-11.20 | -143.5% | $93M | +1.0% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 12, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Strategic Transformation & Operational Leverage - Fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA, with record non-GAAP gross margin of 55% driven by a revenue mix tilted toward higher-margin software, services, and edge hardware - Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA reached $6 million, up 63% year-over-year and more than double Q1 2026 levels; first half 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $8 million, compared to negative $1 million in H1 2025 - Operating cash flow hit break-even at $0.3 million in Q2, a $9 million sequential improvement and $22 million year-over-year improvement - Cash operating expenses remained sequentially flat and 11% lower year-over-year, with disciplined cost management and AI-driven efficiency enabling sustainable OPEX levels ### Core Platform Strengthening - Added ~0.8 gigawatts of solar assets under management, driving 3% sequential growth in PowerTrack annual recurring revenue (ARR) - Rolled out customer-centric product updates including an updated UX, in-app feedback tools, and keyboard shortcuts to improve daily workflows for asset operators and managers - Adoption of PowerTrack Sage, the platform's built-in AI assistant, remains strong with consistent daily usage across customer organizations - Integration of Raccoon (automated fault detection and event management technology acquired in April 2026) into PowerTrack is progressing on schedule; product packaging and release planning is underway, with a substantive update planned for the Q3 2026 earnings call ### Growth Foundation for 2027 and Beyond - **Utility scale expansion**: Q2 2026 bookings grew nearly 15% sequentially; PowerTrack EMS (energy management system) now has bookings across 6 countries and 3 continents, with the German project announced in March 2026 now fully operational - **International expansion**: Entered the Latin American market with a 420-megawatt-hour battery storage hybrid project at the 135-megawatt Grand Heart Solar Project in Chile, and won a new contract for two 80-megawatt-hour hybrid battery projects at existing 60-megawatt solar sites in Hungary; PowerTrack EMS won the 2026 Smarter E Award in the Smart Integrated Energy category for industry validation - **New product and market initiatives**: Officially launched IONA, the company's new AI services offering, in June 2026, with active customer workshops and discussions focused on the existing customer base; continues development of energy software solutions for data center developers and operators - Ended Q2 with $38.4 million in cash and cash equivalents, raised $6 million via an opportunistic at-the-market equity offering at an average price of $9.75 per share
Guidance
Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance across all key financial metrics, with updated trends pointing toward the upper end of most ranges: - Total full-year revenue guidance maintained at $140 million to $190 million; combined software, services, and edge hardware revenue guidance maintained at $130 million to $150 million - Battery hardware resale revenue guidance is maintained at up to $40 million, with management now expecting full-year results to trend toward the lower end of this range, with all resale revenue weighted to the second half of 2026 - Non-GAAP gross margin guidance maintained at 40% to 50%; due to lower-than-expected battery hardware resale revenue in the first half and an expected lower full-year total, management expects full-year non-GAAP gross margin to trend toward the upper end of this range - Adjusted EBITDA guidance maintained at $10 million to $15 million, with management tracking toward the high end of the range - Full-year 2026 operating cash flow guidance maintained at $0 to $10 million - Year-end 2026 total ARR guidance maintained at $65 million to $70 million
Segment performance
Total Q2 2026 revenue was $34 million, a 12% year-over-year decrease from $38 million in Q2 2025. The entire decline came from lower battery hardware resale revenue, which totaled $0.3 million (less than 1% of total revenue) this quarter, compared to $5 million (13% of total revenue) in Q2 2025. Excluding battery hardware resales, combined revenue from software, services, and edge hardware was $33 million (97% of total revenue), up 1% year-over-year. PowerTrack software revenue grew 11% year-over-year to $11 million (32.4% of total revenue). Edge hardware revenue grew 22% year-over-year to $15 million (44.1% of total revenue). Project and professional services revenue was $2 million (5.9% of total revenue), down 6% year-over-year. Managed service revenue was $6 million (17.6% of total revenue), down 34% year-over-year due to an unusually strong Q2 2025 that included 100 megawatt-hours of online deployments.
Risks & headwinds
The primary risks discussed on the call were tied to revenue and margin variability from battery hardware resale volume and timing, as well as U.S.-specific policy changes impacting solar project development. No material operational failures were disclosed during the call: - U.S. policy changes including the FCC's ruling on imported inverters and Section 232 solar module tariffs are U.S.-only, and management has not observed any material impact on the company's domestic or international project pipeline to date - Revenue and margin swing risk stems primarily from variable timing and volume of low-margin battery hardware resale, which creates uncertainty around where full-year results will fall within the wide total revenue guidance range - Forward-looking statements are explicitly noted to carry inherent risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected guidance, with details available in the company's SEC filings
Analyst Q&A
Q: What is driving the strong 22% year-over-year revenue growth and solid margins in edge hardware this quarter? /
A: The growth aligns with the company's strategic shift into the utility-scale project space. Utility-scale projects naturally require a higher proportion of edge hardware deployment due to their size and scope, so the strong performance is a natural reflection of the company's changing revenue mix and current growth trajectory.
Q: Given H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA is already over $8 million, near the lower end of the full-year 10-15 million guidance range, is the implied slower second half EBITDA accurate, and could results exceed the high end of guidance? /
A: The slowdown is purely timing and mix related, not a sign of underlying business weakness. The first half had very little low-margin battery hardware resale revenue, which will increase in the second half, pulling down overall margins modestly. Management reaffirmed guidance and noted they are currently trending toward the high end of the 10-15 million EBITDA range.
Q: How does the economics of hybrid solar-storage projects compare to traditional pure solar PowerTrack monitoring contracts? Do hybrid contracts increase per-megawatt ARR and profitability? /
A: Hybrid projects typically build on existing PowerTrack contracts for the original solar asset, adding an additional new contract for the PowerTrack EMS system for the energy storage component. This adds new incremental ARR from the additional software contract, plus additional revenue from edge hardware deployment and professional services for the new storage build.
Q: With two quarters remaining in 2026, what are the main swing factors that will push results to the high or low end of the wide total revenue guidance range? /
A: The primary swing factor is the volume of battery hardware resale revenue, which management now expects to come in at the lower end of the 40 million guided range. For software, services, and edge hardware, which has a smaller 130-150 million guidance range, the pace of customer project deployments will drive where results land within that range.