Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) Earnings
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. is expected to report next earnings on November 17, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.12. SQM has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -15.9% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | $2.03 | $2.31 | +13.8% | $2.5B | +10.3% |
| May 26, 2026 | $1.78 | $1.28 | -28.1% | $1.8B | +3.9% |
| Nov 19, 2025 | $0.69 | $0.63 | -9.4% | $1.2B | -2.8% |
| Aug 20, 2025 | $0.52 | $0.31 | -39.9% | $1.0B | -14.6% |
| May 28, 2025 | $0.62 | $0.48 | -23.0% | $1.0B | -5.0% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | $0.51 | $0.42 | -18.1% | $1.1B | +7.9% |
| Nov 20, 2024 | $0.66 | $0.46 | -30.0% | $1.1B | +1.2% |
| Aug 21, 2024 | $0.99 | $0.75 | -23.9% | $1.3B | +3.2% |
| May 23, 2024 | $-1.72 | $0.80 | +146.5% | $1.1B | -5.9% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | $1.16 | $0.71 | -38.8% | $1.3B | -9.0% |
| Nov 15, 2023 | $2.11 | $1.68 | -20.4% | $1.8B | -13.2% |
| Aug 16, 2023 | $2.53 | $2.03 | -19.8% | $2.1B | -14.6% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 19, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Major Project Milestones - In July 2026, Novandino Lithio (SQM's joint venture with CODELCO) submitted environmental and technical documentation for the SALAR Futuro project to Chilean regulatory authorities. - SALAR Futuro is a 7-year, $3 billion project designed to expand lithium production at Salar Atacama while significantly reducing the operational environmental footprint, positioning the site for decades of future operation. - The Moon Holland mine and concentrator expansion in Australia has been approved, which will double spodumene concentrate production capacity. ### Lithium Operations - Record Q2 2026 lithium sales volumes, with prices rising in the quarter driven by stronger-than-expected market demand. - Production expansion is progressing in both Chile and Australia: Novandino Lithium (Chile) is on track to reach 300,000 metric tons of LCE production capacity by 2027. - The seawater iodine production pipeline is in the commissioning phase, which will add operational flexibility to optimize output and respond to market changes. ### Contribution to Chile - In the first half of 2026, SQM and its subsidiaries accrued over 1.6 billion in total payments to the Chilean government, including taxes, local government contributions, and payments to Corfo. ### Capital Expenditure Planning - SQM updated its capex outlook to cover 2026–2028, projecting total capital expenditures of approximately $3 billion over the three-year period. Investment is primarily focused on supporting future growth, improving operational competitiveness, and lowering production costs.
Guidance
- Global 2026 lithium demand is now expected to exceed 2.1 million metric tons LCE, representing an upward revision of 200,000 metric tons from prior guidance. - 2026 full-year Novandino Lithium (Chile) production is guided to 280,000–290,000 metric tons LCE, with production capacity reaching ~300,000 metric tons LCE in 2027. - 2026 full-year International Lithium Division (Australian operations) sales are guided to 27,000–30,000 metric tons LCE. - Full-year 2026 iodine sales volumes are expected to increase ~10% compared to 2025, with total iodine production reaching ~15.5 thousand metric tons for the year. Iodine market supply constraints are expected to gradually normalize by the end of 2026. - 2026 full-year lithium production costs are expected to be lower than 2025, driven by ongoing efficiency improvements and economies of scale from increased output. Q3 2026 lithium costs are expected to be similar to Q2 2026 levels. - Q3 2026 lithium sales volumes are expected to remain strong, in line with Q2 2026 volumes; average lithium prices are expected to be in line with the first half 2026 average.
Segment performance
The transcript does not provide detailed absolute financial results or revenue contribution percentages for individual product segments. It only reports that the Lithium segment achieved a record quarterly sales volume of over 84,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) across SQM's Chilean (Novandino Lithium) and Australian (Covalent Lithium) operations. For the Iodine segment, management noted it is currently producing from 4 operations, with expected full-year 2026 total iodine production of approximately 15.5 thousand metric tons, and projected full-year 2026 sales volumes 10% higher than 2025. No other segment-level financial or volume data is disclosed in the transcript.
Risks & headwinds
- Lithium prices are highly volatile in the current market, and future price movements cannot be predicted with certainty. - There is operational risk associated with third-party tolling of lithium sulfate in China, though management has ramped up capacity faster than initially expected and did not detail immediate cost or availability risks. - Brownfield expansion projects like the Moon Holland expansion carry unique construction and scheduling challenges that can delay production startup. - New iodine supply entering the Chilean market could impact SQM's sales volumes and pricing, depending on the actual amount of new supply brought online. - Forward-looking projections are subject to regulatory approval risk for major projects like SALAR Futuro; actual results may differ materially from projections due to unforeseen changes in market conditions or regulatory processes.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Will Q3 2026 lithium gross margin be similar to Q2 2026, and why is there a widening price gap between Novandino (Chile) and International (Australia) ASP? /
A: Management expects Q3 2026 lithium volumes and costs to remain in line with Q2 levels. 2026 full-year costs will be lower than 2025 due to efficiency gains and scale. The price gap stems from the fact that most Australian sales are spodumene concentrate, which requires adjustment for conversion costs and yield to compare to Chilean LCE pricing. Timing of discrete Australian shipments also caused uneven Q2 price gains, which will even out in future quarters. (612 characters)
Q: Where will the additional 200,000 tons of 2026 lithium supply come from to meet raised demand expectations? /
A: Management expects incremental 2026 supply to primarily come from China, from both spodumene and brine operations. Additional supply will also come from ramp-up of new projects in Africa and Argentina, plus restarts of idled capacity in Australia driven by current higher lithium prices. (289 characters)
Q: What does the $3 billion SALAR Futuro investment include, and is it only for a 30,000 ton capacity increase? /
A: SALAR Futuro is a full transformation of Salar Atacama operations, not just a marginal capacity increase. The project implements new lower-cost, lower-environmental-impact technology to enable 60+ years of continued operation at the site. While production will increase, final capacity targets have not been disclosed and will be shared in the next two years. (350 characters)
Q: Is the gap between battery energy storage shipments and installations signaling a looming inventory build and temporary lithium demand slowdown? /
A: Management confirms there is a current gap between shipments and deployments, mostly due to longer implementation timelines for large-scale projects and delays in regulatory approvals. Part of the gap also stems from Chinese suppliers pulling 2027 sales into 2026 to expiring tax rebates. While growth pace may slow slightly, battery storage will remain a strong core driver of long-term lithium demand. (403 characters)