Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Earnings

Management highlights

### Government Weather Business Milestones & Pipeline - All targeted Q2 2026 milestones were achieved: NOAA hyperspectral microwave sounding proposals have advanced to negotiation or contract closing, RFGL secured new customer awards, and constellation capacity expansion is on schedule. - A signed $5 million NOAA Hyperspectral Microwave Founder Data Contract extension (nine-month term) was secured, and an eight-figure U.S. government HIMSS hyperspectral microwave sounding contract is in active negotiation, built on flight-proven data from the on-orbit HIMSS payload. - The existing $11.2 million annual NOAA radio occultation (RO) contract is in full execution; a multi-phase renewal is expected, with a short bridge award in August 2026 followed by a full multi-year award after NOAA finalizes its $8 billion IDIQ contract vehicle, with expected higher annual value than the 2025 award. - International and commercial weather demand is growing: SPIRE secured an expanded annual RO contract with UMITSAT now valued at over 4 million euros, plus two new six-figure commercial weather data contracts in early July 2026. ### RFGL Business Growth - Global demand for RF intelligence is durable, driven by widespread GNSS jamming and spoofing that creates need for independent space-based geolocation and interference detection. - Q2 2026 saw four new international RFGL customer awards, adding to five new U.S. and three new international awards from Q1 2026; most international engagements are in early pilot stages, providing a multi-year growth runway. - RFGL capacity has increased ~10x year-to-date 2026, driven by new satellite deployments; active constellation management and incremental firmware upgrades unlock additional capacity from existing satellites. Launch capacity is reserved through 2028 to support continued scaling. ### European Expansion & Strategic Positioning - Two new strategic partnerships with German firms Schaeffler and Diehl Defense were announced, strengthening SPIRE's position in the European sovereign space ecosystem, combining SPIRE's flight-proven space capabilities with European industrial and defense expertise. - Recent NATO and EU defense commitments (over $50 billion in new NATO procurement, a 24 billion euro European space defense project through 2034) create long-term demand for commercial space-based intelligence capabilities, where SPIRE is well-positioned. - The new Munich satellite manufacturing facility opened in May 2026, giving SPIRE transatlantic manufacturing capacity (North America, Germany, UK) able to produce 300 to 400 satellites annually, supporting sovereign supply chain requirements and large-scale procurement. ### Operational & Technology Milestones - 29 satellites have been launched in 2026 year-to-date, with 19 Q1 2026 satellites reaching full operational status on schedule and 10 additional satellites launched in early July 2026. - SPIRE achieved a major optical inter-satellite link (OISL) milestone, successfully establishing a stable 5,000-kilometer cross-plane laser connection between two 3U/4U nanosatellites, reducing latency and ground station dependence as the constellation scales. - Over 85% of full-year 2026 guidance revenue is already contracted as of end of July 2026, up from 76% in May 2026. SPIRE won a favorable arbitration ruling against Northstar, with all claims dismissed and ~$12.4 million awarded in SPIRE's favor.

Guidance

- Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $75 million to $85 million, which represents 50% year-over-year core revenue growth at the midpoint. Over 85% of the guidance midpoint is already contracted as of end of July 2026. - The full-year revenue ramp remains heavily second-half weighted, with $41 million to $51 million expected in H2 2026; sequential step-up will be moderate in Q3 2026, with the majority of H2 growth coming in Q4 2026. - Management expects gross margin expansion to resume in H2 2026 as revenue scales on the largely fixed cost base, with a long-term target gross margin of 60% to 70%. - Adjusted EBITDA break-even is still expected between late 2026 and early 2027. - Cash flow used in operations is expected to continue improving sequentially in Q3 and Q4 2026, holding to the current improvement trend. - Full-year 2026 capital expenditure for property, plant, and equipment is expected to remain at $27 million.

Segment performance

SPIRE reports consolidated GAAP revenue of $18 million for Q2 2026. Excluding the divested maritime business, core revenue grew 16% year-over-year and 19% sequentially from Q1 2026, with growth driven by higher delivery of space services data and increased RF Geolocation (RFGL) data purchases. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at 38%, down from 52% in Q2 2025, primarily due to one-time costs from the canceled wildfire SAC contract. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was negative $8.6 million, an improvement of 16% year-over-year and 15% sequentially, driven by lower operating expenses. Cash flow used in operations was $23.4 million, improving 32% year-over-year and 11% sequentially. End-of-quarter cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $92 million, with the company remaining debt-free. No separate revenue contributions for individual segments were explicitly provided in the call.

Risks & headwinds

- U.S. federal government budget uncertainty and potential continuing resolutions in October 2026 are recognized, though management has incorporated this into guidance and expects no material impact to 2026 revenue. - Proposed U.S. budget cuts to NOAA are noted, but management expects commercial partnership priorities will insulate its NOAA pipeline, with no material impact to 2026 or 2027 revenue. - NOAA procurement timelines for secondary contract opportunities (outside RO and microwave sounding) are uncertain, with awards potentially slipping into 2027 rather than closing in H2 2026. - Forward-looking results depend on successful contract closing for the eight-figure HIMSS negotiation and NOAA RO bridge award, which are not yet finalized. - All forward-looking statements are inherently subject to general risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations, as detailed in SPIRE's SEC filings.

Analyst Q&A

• Q: With guidance still calling for second-half weighted growth, is most of the H2 revenue step-up concentrated in Q4 rather than Q3? /

  A: Management confirmed the analyst's framing is correct: there will be a moderate sequential step-up in Q3 2026, while the majority of the H2 2026 revenue growth will be realized in Q4 2026.

• Q: Gross margin declined despite higher revenue this quarter; when will expected operating leverage become visible in gross margin? /

  A: The Q2 2026 gross margin decline was driven entirely by one-time costs from the termination of the wildfire SAC contract and required balance sheet cleanup. Excluding this one-time impact, gross margin has trended upward over the past three quarters, and this upward trend will resume in H2 2026 as revenue scales, moving toward the long-term 60% to 70% gross margin target.

• Q: If proposed NOAA budget cuts are enacted, how would that impact SPIRE's contract pipeline? /

  A: Management noted that while NOAA is re-evaluating some climate and research programs, partnerships with commercial space providers are a high priority for the agency, and budget reallocations are actually shifting resources toward commercial programs like SPIRE's. Management expects no impact to 2026 revenue and remains confident in continued growth into 2027.

• Q: Is the planned diversification into European defense contracts intended to reduce reliance on U.S. government budget timing uncertainty? /

  A: Management confirmed that customer and revenue diversification across geographies and segments (commercial, civil, defense/intel) is an explicit strategic priority. Both the U.S. government and SPIRE itself benefit from reduced over-reliance on U.S. federal contracts, making European expansion a strategically positive move for long-term stable growth.

• Q: What is driving the 10x year-to-date increase in RFGL capacity, and can existing satellites be upgraded for RFGL capability? /

  A: Most of the capacity increase comes from newly launched satellites, but SPIRE actively manages its full constellation, and incremental firmware upgrades can unlock additional RFGL capacity from existing satellites where orbital positioning supports geolocation. Additional new launches remain the primary source of capacity growth to meet rising demand.