Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) Earnings
Serve Robotics Inc. is expected to report next earnings on November 11, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $-0.69. SERV has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of its last 9 reported quarters (average surprise -14.8% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $-0.69 | $-0.80 | -16.8% | $3M | -6.5% |
| May 7, 2026 | $-0.65 | $-0.65 | +0.0% | $3M | +5.6% |
| Mar 11, 2026 | $-0.48 | $-0.46 | +3.5% | $882000 | -68.6% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | $-0.37 | $-0.54 | -45.9% | $686535 | -10.3% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $-0.23 | $-0.36 | -56.5% | $642000 | +2.7% |
| May 8, 2025 | $-0.21 | $-0.16 | +23.8% | $440465 | -9.5% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | $-0.19 | $-0.23 | -21.1% | $175842 | -30.9% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $-0.20 | $-0.20 | +0.0% | $221555 | -14.1% |
| Aug 13, 2024 | $-0.25 | $-0.27 | -8.0% | $468375 | +17.1% |
| May 15, 2024 | — | $-0.37 | — | $946711 | — |
| Dec 30, 2023 | — | $-0.24 | — | $42719 | — |
| Sep 29, 2023 | — | $-0.21 | — | $62565 | — |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Partnership Update: Uber was an important 5-year anchor partner that helped CERB validate autonomous last-mile delivery and scale its fleet to 2,000 robots across 40 U.S. cities. After 17 consecutive quarters of growing delivery volume with Uber, volume declined in Q2 2026 due to low robot utilization, stemming from misalignment with Uber on the operating model for the shared autonomous fleet, including fleet coordination and merchant integration. Management currently does not expect to renew the partnership when it expires in early 2027, unless the operating model is meaningfully revised, and will reallocate fleet capacity to higher-utilization opportunities. CERB has not experienced demand or quality issues with its core technology, and another delivery partner grew nearly 50% in Q2 2026. - Operational Scale and Diversification: CERB ended Q2 2026 with a 2,000-robot fleet operating across more than 40 U.S. cities, and $240 million in total liquidity. Revenue is diversified across delivery, advertising, and hospital robotics, reducing reliance on any single channel. DoorDash delivery volume continued strong growth, hitting another 50% increase between June and July 2026. A new major delivery marketplace partnership will be announced in August 2026. - New Product Launches: CERB will launch Beacon, a new standalone countertop merchant integration product, in August 2026. Beacon eliminates historical integration friction by working with any restaurant regardless of existing point-of-sale or internet infrastructure, opening up two-thirds of currently addressable restaurant order volume that was previously inaccessible due to integration barriers. A new product to expand direct customer demand and support non-food delivery use cases will launch in fall 2026. Major advancements to CERB's AI-powered autonomy stack will be announced later in 2026, which will improve robot speed, safety, reliability, and capability. - Cost Discipline: Management is implementing targeted cost cuts to align with lower near-term revenue guidance, while continuing to prioritize investment in core autonomy and software development that drives long-term robot productivity and unit economics. CERB is also consolidating overlapping general and administrative functions after the Diligent Robotics acquisition.
Guidance
- Full year 2026 total revenue guidance was materially revised downward to $9 million to $10 million, from the prior guidance of $26 million. The revision reflects the removal of projected future Uber delivery volume growth that was previously expected in the second half of 2026, not the loss of a large existing revenue stream, as Uber accounted for a limited share of Q2 2026 revenue. Even with the revision, full year 2026 revenue is still expected to grow nearly 350% year over year. - 2026 capital expenditure guidance was revised downward to $15 million to $17 million, from the prior guidance of approximately $25 million. - 2026 non-GAAP operating expense guidance was revised downward to $140 million to $150 million, from the prior guidance of $160 million to $170 million. Cost reductions will come from headcount discipline, optimized deployment infrastructure spending, tighter discretionary spending, and consolidation of overlapping functions, while core R&D for autonomy and software will remain a priority.
Segment performance
Total Q2 2026 revenue was $3.2 million, a 9% sequential increase over Q1 2026 and a 400% year-over-year increase. 1. Autonomous Food Delivery: Delivery revenue declined sequentially in Q2 2026, driven by lower-than-expected utilization on the company's partnership with Uber. Revenue from another major delivery partner, DoorDash, grew 50% sequentially in Q2 2026. 2. Advertising: Advertising revenues accounted for nearly 50% of total robotic food delivery revenue in Q2 2026, and generates attractive margins even amid broader macro headwinds to advertising spending. 3. Hospital Robotics (Diligent Robotics): The hospital robotics segment generates contracted, recurring revenue with attractive margins. In the first half of 2026, CERB signed seven multi-year contract extensions with existing hospital customers and two new hospital contracts. Total software revenue (driven largely by hospital robotics) was nearly $1 million in Q2 2026. Recurring revenue, the majority of which comes from hospital robotics, made up over 50% of CERB's total Q2 2026 revenue.
Risks & headwinds
- Over-reliance on large third-party delivery platform partners exposes CERB to unexpected volume declines and partnership non-renewal if operating model and incentive alignment cannot be maintained, which has resulted in a material downward revision to 2026 guidance. - Near-term revenue is softer than originally projected, increasing pressure on cost management and capital allocation to extend the company's cash runway. - Back-of-house integration barriers continue to constrain addressable market for autonomous last-mile delivery, requiring new product development to unlock additional volume. - Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds are pressuring advertising spending, a key high-margin revenue segment for CERB. - Successful scaling of hospital robotics depends on ongoing hardware optimization and cost reduction to support accelerated deployment, which is still in progress.
Analyst Q&A
Q: What specific factors caused the unexpected decline in Uber partnership utilization in Q2? Was it related to reduced resource allocation from Uber or regulatory issues? /
A: The core issue was misalignment between CERB and Uber on operational decision-making for the mixed autonomous and human delivery fleet, including order allocation and fleet organization. These disagreements were highlighted by the Q2 volume decline, bringing the alignment issue to the surface. Management is respecting Uber's partner confidentiality and declined to share additional specific details.
Q: Going forward, which channels will be CERB's top priority: third-party delivery partners like DoorDash, or direct-to-merchant relationships? How will CERB reach end customers for direct relationships? /
A: CERB will prioritize both channels, but is investing heavily in direct-to-merchant capabilities to gain more control over its business destiny and enable innovation that third-party platforms would not allow. The new Beacon product will enable integration with any restaurant regardless of existing infrastructure, and support new non-food use cases. CERB will also continue investing in its successful DoorDash partnership, which has continued strong growth.
Q: How does CERB measure progress on autonomy efficiency, and what is the cadence of improvements from machine learning? /
A: The top-level KPI for autonomy is improving core robot performance: making robots faster, safer, more reliable, and able to complete deliveries to drive higher revenue and better margins. CERB is currently rolling out a new autonomous architecture with advanced end-to-end AI models that is already delivering measurable fleet improvements, and will share full details on KPIs and progress when the new platform is announced publicly in the coming months.
Q: Can you share details on the advertising business: what formats are used, what types of advertisers you work with, and what is the outlook for the back half of 2026? /
A: The main advertising format is wraps on robot exteriors, with growing revenue from experiential advertising activations, and both local and national brand campaigns are seeing traction. The team has expanded capabilities to support multi-city and multi-neighborhood campaigns, driving strong inbound demand. Advertising contributed 50% of Q2 sidewalk delivery revenue even amid macro headwinds, and maintains attractive margins, but management declined to provide standalone guidance for the segment.