Sera Prognostics, Inc.
- Open
- 2.08
- Day high
- 2.18
- Day low
- 2.08
- Prev close
- 2.07
- Volume
- 10K
- Mkt cap
- $84M
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- EPS (TTM)
- —
- P/B
- 1.4
- P/S
- 1194.8
- Yield
- —
- Per share
- —
- ▼Insiders net selling -$91K over the last 3 months (0 open-market buys, 8 sales)
- 🏛Institutions reducing (13F)
Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) is a Healthcare company listed on NASDAQ. The stock is down 36% over the past year. Over the trailing 3 months, insiders filed 0 open-market buys and 8 sales (SEC Form 4).
Sera Prognostics, Inc. (SERA) financials & analyst ratings
Fundamentals (TTM)
Source: exchange market data + company filings. Figures are trailing-twelve-month or as most recently reported. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
SERA earnings date, history & EPS estimates
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | $-0.15 | $-0.18 | -16.7% | $30000 | -58.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | $-0.16 | $-0.17 | -6.3% | $14000 | -79.0% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | $-0.19 | $-0.16 | +16.6% | $10000 | -68.5% |
| Nov 13, 2025 | $-0.19 | $-0.16 | +15.8% | $16000 | -68.2% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $-0.21 | $-0.16 | +23.8% | $17000 | -88.7% |
| May 7, 2025 | $-0.24 | $-0.20 | +16.7% | $38000 | -24.0% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | $-0.23 | $-0.25 | -8.7% | $24000 | +65.5% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | $-0.25 | $-0.25 | +0.0% | $41000 | -56.2% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | $-0.42 | $-0.31 | +26.2% | $65000 | -51.2% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | $-0.40 | $-0.35 | +12.5% | $87000 | -20.9% |
| Aug 10, 2022 | $-0.40 | $-0.37 | +7.5% | $78000 | -22.0% |
| Aug 30, 2021 | $-1.26 | $-3.17 | -151.6% | $20000 | -92.9% |
SERA insider trading activity (SEC Form 4)
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barlow Jane Fdirector | Grant | 34,494 | $1.97 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | CRITCHFIELD GREGORY Cdirector | Grant | 1,594 | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | CRITCHFIELD GREGORY Cdirector | Grant | 34,494 | $1.97 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | CRITCHFIELD GREGORY Cdirector | Grant | 2,452 | $1.97 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Capone Mark Christopherdirector | Grant | 42,404 | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Capone Mark Christopherdirector | Grant | 1,975 | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Capone Mark Christopherdirector | Grant | 62,766 | $1.97 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Capone Mark Christopherdirector | Grant | 3,037 | $1.97 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barlow Jane Fdirector | Grant | 22,426 | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barlow Jane Fdirector | Grant | 1,949 | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Barlow Jane Fdirector | Grant | 2,998 | $1.97 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Phillips Joshuadirector | Grant | 22,426 | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Phillips Joshuadirector | Grant | 2,260 | — |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Phillips Joshuadirector | Grant | 34,494 | $1.97 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Phillips Joshuadirector | Grant | 3,477 | $1.97 |
Source: SERA SEC Form 4 filings, latest Jul 14, 2026. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
See the full SERA insider & 13F page →Sera Prognostics, Inc. company profile
Overview
Sera Prognostics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SERA) is a women's health diagnostic company founded in 2008 and headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah. The company went public in July 2021 and focuses on developing blood-based biomarker tests to predict and improve pregnancy outcomes. Sera Prognostics operates in the specialized field of prenatal diagnostics, addressing one of healthcare's most pressing challenges: preterm birth, which affects approximately 1 in 10 babies born in the United States and has seen rates increase by 12% between 2014-2022.
Business
Sera Prognostics operates in the medical diagnostics industry, specifically focusing on women's health and pregnancy-related conditions. The prenatal diagnostics market represents a critical segment of healthcare where early detection and risk assessment can significantly impact maternal and neonatal outcomes. The company's flagship product is the PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker diagnostic that predicts the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. Preterm birth, defined as delivery before 37 weeks of gestation, is a leading cause of neonatal mortality and long-term health complications. The PreTRM test analyzes specific protein biomarkers in maternal blood to assess the likelihood of early delivery, allowing healthcare providers to implement preventive interventions and monitoring protocols. Beyond the PreTRM test, Sera Prognostics is developing a comprehensive portfolio of pregnancy-related diagnostic products. The company's pipeline includes tests for preeclampsia (a dangerous pregnancy complication characterized by high blood pressure), molecular time-to-birth prediction, gestational diabetes mellitus detection, fetal growth restriction assessment, stillbirth risk evaluation, and postpartum depression screening. The company is also developing a Time to Birth product targeted for launch in the second half of 2025, expected to be priced around $150, and a Predictive Analytics tool currently in beta testing. The prenatal diagnostics industry serves a critical need in maternal healthcare, where early identification of high-risk pregnancies can lead to interventions that prevent adverse outcomes. This market is driven by increasing awareness of maternal mortality rates, rising healthcare costs associated with neonatal intensive care, and growing emphasis on preventive medicine in pregnancy care.
Revenue model
Sera Prognostics generates revenue primarily through direct sales of its diagnostic tests to healthcare providers, including hospitals, clinics, and integrated delivery networks. The company's business model centers on fee-for-service testing, where healthcare providers order the PreTRM test for eligible patients and pay per test performed. Current revenue remains minimal, with quarterly revenues ranging from $24,000 to $38,000, indicating the company is still in early commercialization stages. The company's revenue strategy focuses on three primary reimbursement pathways. First, Medicaid plan pilots in states with high premature birth rates, recognizing that Medicaid covers approximately 43% of all births in the United States. Second, engagement with commercial payers who are motivated by potential cost savings from reduced neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions. Third, targeting dominant employers and self-funded organizations that bear direct healthcare costs and can benefit from preventing expensive preterm birth complications. Several factors influence Sera Prognostics' revenue potential and margins. Positive factors include the publication of clinical study results demonstrating the test's efficacy, inclusion in clinical practice guidelines from professional organizations like the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), and expanded payer coverage decisions. The company's PRIME clinical study showed compelling results, including a 25% reduction in neonatal mortality and morbidity index, 18% reduction in neonatal hospital stay length, and 20% overall reduction in NICU admissions. Challenges to revenue growth include the slow adoption typical of new diagnostic tests in healthcare, lengthy payer approval processes, competition from existing pregnancy monitoring protocols, and the need for extensive clinical evidence to support widespread adoption. The company also faces regulatory uncertainties, particularly regarding potential FDA laboratory developed test (LDT) regulations that could impact operational requirements and costs. Additionally, the specialized nature of prenatal diagnostics means the addressable market, while significant, is limited to the approximately 3 million eligible pregnancies annually in the United States.
Competitive moat
Sera Prognostics' competitive moat appears relatively narrow at present, though the company is working to strengthen its position through clinical evidence and regulatory pathways. The company's primary competitive advantage lies in its proprietary biomarker technology and the extensive clinical validation it has conducted, particularly through the PRIME study involving over 5,000 patients. This clinical evidence base represents a significant barrier to entry, as replicating such studies requires substantial time, capital, and regulatory expertise. The company's intellectual property portfolio around specific protein biomarkers for preterm birth prediction provides some protection, though the strength of these patents and their enforceability against potential competitors remains unclear from available information. Additionally, Sera Prognostics has developed specialized laboratory processes and quality systems for processing these complex biomarker tests, creating operational expertise that would be difficult for new entrants to quickly replicate. However, the company's moat faces several vulnerabilities. The prenatal diagnostics market could attract larger, well-funded competitors with greater resources for clinical studies, regulatory affairs, and commercial scaling. Established diagnostic companies like Quest Diagnostics, LabCorp, or specialized women's health companies could potentially develop competing tests or acquire emerging competitors. The regulatory pathway for laboratory developed tests is also evolving, which could either strengthen Sera Prognostics' position if it successfully navigates new requirements or create opportunities for better-funded competitors. The company's long-term moat will likely depend on achieving inclusion in clinical practice guidelines, which would create a significant competitive advantage by establishing its test as the standard of care. However, this process typically takes several years and requires sustained clinical evidence generation. Until such guideline inclusion occurs, Sera Prognostics remains vulnerable to competitive pressure and faces the challenge of building market adoption without the support of established clinical protocols.
Risks & safety
Sera Prognostics presents a mixed margin of safety profile, with adequate liquidity but concerning operational cash burn and minimal revenue generation. • **Cash Position**: $5.2 million in cash and short-term investments as of Q1 2025, supplemented by a $57.5 million public offering completed in February 2025, extending cash runway into 2028 • **Debt Level**: Minimal debt with debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0009, indicating low financial leverage and solvency risk • **Cash Burn**: Significant negative operating cash flow of $7.6 million in Q1 2025, with projected annual operating expenses of $30-35 million for 2025 • **Current Ratio**: Strong liquidity position with current ratio of 2.02, indicating ability to meet short-term obligations • **Valuation Metrics**: Trading at negative P/E ratio due to losses, with price-to-book ratio of 1.63 suggesting modest premium to book value • **Revenue Generation**: Minimal revenue of $38,000 in Q1 2025, indicating early-stage commercialization with substantial execution risk ahead • **Market Cap**: Small market capitalization of approximately $57 million creates high volatility and limited institutional investor interest
Recent development
Over the past few years, Sera Prognostics has focused on transitioning from a research-stage company to commercial operations while building clinical evidence for its diagnostic tests. The company's most significant achievement has been completing the PRIME clinical study, which enrolled over 5,000 patients and demonstrated substantial improvements in neonatal outcomes. This study showed a 25% reduction in neonatal mortality and morbidity index, 18% reduction in hospital stay length, and 20% reduction in NICU admissions, providing compelling evidence for the clinical utility of the PreTRM test. The company has shifted its commercial strategy toward a geographically targeted ecosystem approach, focusing on states with high preterm birth rates such as California, Nevada, Texas, and Louisiana. This strategy emphasizes building regional presence through dedicated account managers and pursuing Medicaid pilot programs, recognizing that Medicaid covers nearly half of all births in the United States. Sera Prognostics is targeting 2-4 Medicaid pilot programs over the next 12 months and plans to expand its sales force by 5-10 full-time employees. Product development efforts have expanded beyond the core PreTRM test to include a broader portfolio of pregnancy-related diagnostics. The company is preparing to launch its Time to Birth product in the second half of 2025, priced around $150, and has a Predictive Analytics tool in beta testing. Additionally, Sera Prognostics is developing an immunoassay version of its test platform to facilitate international market expansion, particularly in European markets with high preterm birth rates. The company has also invested significantly in building awareness and market education, launching television and digital advertising campaigns, partnering with patient education platforms like What to Expect and Baby Center, and making the PreTRM test available for direct online ordering. These efforts are designed to generate demand from both patients and healthcare providers while the company works toward the ultimate goal of inclusion in clinical practice guidelines from professional organizations like ACOG, which could dramatically accelerate adoption.
SERA company profile · for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
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