Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) Earnings
Southern Copper Corporation is expected to report next earnings on October 27, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.81. SCCO has beaten EPS estimates in 11 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +3.9% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | $1.97 | $2.01 | +1.9% | $4.3B | -0.1% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | $1.87 | $1.92 | +2.6% | $4.3B | +7.9% |
| Jan 27, 2026 | $1.53 | $1.58 | +3.2% | $3.9B | +5.1% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $1.25 | $1.35 | +7.9% | $3.4B | +5.1% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $1.12 | $1.22 | +9.1% | $3.1B | -1.2% |
| Apr 25, 2025 | $1.13 | $1.19 | +5.4% | $3.1B | +5.3% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $1.03 | $1.01 | -1.8% | $2.8B | -2.1% |
| Oct 22, 2024 | $1.11 | $1.15 | +4.0% | $2.9B | -0.2% |
| Jul 19, 2024 | $1.04 | $1.21 | +15.9% | $3.1B | +10.8% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | $0.76 | $0.94 | +23.4% | $2.6B | +4.0% |
| Feb 9, 2024 | $0.74 | $1.17 | +57.9% | $2.3B | — |
| Oct 25, 2023 | $0.74 | $0.80 | +8.1% | $2.5B | -1.4% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · July 22, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Overall Financial Performance - Q2 2026 delivered record results for sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net income, driven by operating excellence and sustained copper demand - Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $2,856 million, a 60% YoY increase, with a margin of 67% (up from 59% YoY); year-to-date adjusted EBITDA was $5,569 million, 58% higher than H1 2025, with a 65% margin (up from 57% YoY) - Net income reached a record $1,670 million, a 72% YoY increase, with a 39% margin (up from 32% YoY); H1 2026 net income was 69% higher than H1 2025 - Operating cash cost per pound of copper before by-product credits was $2.29 in Q2 2026, a 1% decrease from Q1 2026; including by-product credits, cash cost was $0.05 per pound - H1 2026 operating cash flow was $3,683 million, a 117% YoY increase, driven by higher sales and lower working capital requirements - In June 2026, the company issued $1.25 billion in 10-year senior unsecured notes (5.35% annual interest, due 2036) with 3.2x oversubscription; proceeds are earmarked for the Tia Maria project, Peruvian capital expenditure, and general corporate purposes for Southern Peru Copper ### Capital Expansion Projects - Total planned capital investment for the 2020s exceeds $20.5 billion across projects in Peru and Mexico - Q2 2026 capital expenditure was $423 million, a 79% YoY increase; H1 2026 CapEx hit $865 million, a 56% YoY increase - **Peru Projects**: - Tia Maria: 42% complete as of June 2026, with $693 million invested to date; mass earthworks are 71% complete, most major equipment orders placed, civil works have commenced, and 5,817 new jobs have been created; start-up is targeted for the second half of 2027 - Los Chancas: Illegal miner presence in the project area continues to hinder progress despite government enforcement; community and environmental programs are ongoing - Michiquillay: Reserve estimation, mine planning, and geotechnical/hydrological studies are in progress - **Mexico Projects**: - El Pilar (Sonora greenfield): All environmental and water permits secured; early site preparation begins September 2026, construction starts Q1 2027, production begins H2 2029; 18-year mine life, 36,000 tons annual copper cathode capacity, $551 million total investment - Other pipeline projects include Angangueo, Chalchihuites, and the Empalme Smelter, with the company in talks with the Mexican administration to advance $10.2 billion in planned investments ### ESG and Social Initiatives - In Peru, the completed Cularjahuira dam has increased local crop yields by ~20%; two additional dams are under construction that will cover over 90% of local farmers' water needs - In Mexico, the company operates 11 education centers benefiting 3,000 students, with local students achieving success in national and international STEM competitions - Mexican community sports and cultural programs engage 26% of local youth, with volunteer-led improvements to community infrastructure ### Dividend Announcement - A quarterly cash dividend of $1.10 per share and a stock dividend of 0.012 common shares per share was declared, payable August 27, 2026; total combined dividend is estimated at $3.23 per share
Guidance
- 2026 full-year production guidance: 917,000 tons of copper (1% above the initial plan), 27,900 tons of molybdenum (7% above the initial plan), 24 million ounces of silver (in line with plan), and 163,900 tons of zinc - Management estimates a slight copper market deficit for 2026, with total global exchange inventories equal to approximately 15 days of global demand as of July 21, 2026 - 2027 copper production is expected to be roughly flat relative to 2026, with limited incremental contribution from Tia Maria in late 2027 - 2028 copper production is expected to rise to ~970,000 tons following full ramp-up of Tia Maria - 2029 copper production is expected to exceed 1 million tons (1,060,000 tons), driven by Tia Maria, ore grade recoveries at existing Peruvian mines, and contribution from the El Pilar project - The company's long-term target is to reach over 1.6 million tons of annual copper production by 2033-2034 via fully-owned organic growth projects
Segment performance
Total company sales in Q2 2026 were $4.3 billion, a 41% increase year-over-year. - Copper: 73% of Q2 2026 sales. Production was 230,662 tons, a 3.5% YoY decrease, driven by a 12% production drop at Peruvian operations (Toquepala and Cuajone) due to lower ore grades, partially offset by a 3.2% production increase at Mexican mines. Copper sales rose 38% YoY on higher prices, despite a 1.5% volume drop. - Molybdenum: 11% of Q2 2026 sales. Production fell 11% YoY due to lower ore grades across all mines, but sales increased 34% YoY on a 43% rise in average prices (to $29.44 per pound). - Silver: 9% of Q2 2026 sales. Production fell 4% YoY due to lower output at Peruvian mines and Buenavista, but sales rose 86% YoY on an 118% jump in average prices (to $73.49 per ounce). - Zinc: 4% of Q2 2026 sales. Mine production fell 14% YoY to 39,257 tons due to lower ore grades, but sales rose 24% YoY on a 31% rise in average prices (to $1.57 per pound).
Risks & headwinds
- Lower ore grades at existing Peruvian mines (Toquepala and Cuajone) have driven year-over-year production declines in Q2 2026 - Ongoing illegal mining activity within the Los Chancas project area in Peru continues to hinder project progress, despite government enforcement efforts - Large-scale project execution carries typical construction and supply chain risks, including potential delays for critical equipment such as Tia Maria's desalination plant - Regulatory and political uncertainty remains associated with Peru's incoming administration, though management expects a positive policy environment for mining - Project permitting and technical review processes can lead to multi-year delays for smaller projects even when reserves are already confirmed
Analyst Q&A
Q: Copper production fell 3.5% YoY this quarter due to lower ore grades at Toquepala and Cuajone. How will ore grades trend in H2 2026, and does this change full-year guidance? /
A: Lower YoY production is entirely driven by lower ore grades, specifically a 35,000-ton reduction at Cuajone with additional declines at Toquepala, totaling ~40,000 tons lower production across Peruvian operations. Higher production at Mexican operations offset these declines partially, and full-year 2026 copper guidance has been raised slightly to 917,000 tons from the initial 910,000-ton target.
Q: All permits for El Pilar have been obtained, including the previously expired water license, right? Is the Tia Maria desalination plant ordered, and is there a risk of delaying the 2027 start-up? /
A: El Pilar's water license has been fully renewed, so all requirements are in place to begin early works in September 2026 as planned. Purchase orders for Tia Maria's major components including the desalination plant are still being finalized, but the company does not currently expect any project delays, and will notify the market immediately if any delays arise. Tia Maria's start-up remains targeted for the second half of 2027.
Q: How do you expect the political and regulatory environment to change in Peru under the new Keiko Fujimori administration, and what are the key risks for Los Chancas and Tia Maria? /
A: The incoming administration's stated priorities include fighting illegal mining and improving security for mining projects, which is expected to be positive for Los Chancas. The social environment for Tia Maria is currently stable, with significant local employment, and no material execution risks are visible at this time. Management expects greater political stability from institutional changes including the return of the Senate, and will have more clarity on policy after the presidential inauguration on July 28.
Q: Why was the El Pilar project delayed for 11 years after Southern Copper acquired it, and did the previous Mexican administration's open pit mining restrictions cause delays? /
A: The delay was driven by an extended technical review to confirm copper recovery estimates, which took longer than initially expected, followed by a required permit renewal process after the technical work was completed. The previous Mexican administration's open pit policies had no impact on El Pilar, as all required concessions and permits for the open pit project were already secured.