Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) Earnings

Management highlights

- **Consumer Trends & Macro Impact**: Despite macro uncertainty and a weak lower-end consumer, same-store sales (SSS) comped -0.2%, a 3.5-point improvement over the prior year. Ex-California SSS was +0.9%. The negative full-year comp was primarily driven by a five-week disruption from the World Cup and NBA Finals viewership, which kept consumers at home in June. - **Water Park Strategy**: The company expanded direct management of water parks to five locations, including Raging Waters Los Angeles ($45 million acquisition). Per capita spending increased double digits while payroll decreased mid-single digits. Weather significantly impacted attendance (e.g., Raging Waves Chicago), but pricing discipline protected economics. TTM EBITDA rose to $22 million. - **Cost & Efficiency Improvements**: Capital expenditures were reduced by 19% to $114 million (from $141 million previously). Payroll overrun from Q2 became a tailwind in Q4. Significant advancements were made in analytics, pricing, and labor management through AI-driven insights. - **Marketing & Branding**: Marketing spend doubled working media, increasing awareness but lacking sufficient conversion intent. Future investments will be strictly tied to measurable ROI. The company is consolidating brands to Lucky Strike and AMF to improve marketing efficiency. - **Events Business Restructuring**: A hybrid sales model was implemented on July 1, splitting inbound business between large corporate and localized entities, with a centralized call center handling smaller parties. This aims to rebuild lost event volume ($40 million lost over three years). - **California Market**: Identified as the weakest market (approx. 20% of business), comping -4% last year. Leadership changes and corporate sales overhauls are underway. Trends are improving sequentially, though not yet factored into conservative guidance.

Guidance

- **Fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA**: Guidance set at $340 million to $360 million, reflecting a conservative approach due to environmental prudence rather than plan trajectory issues. - **Same-Store Sales**: Expected to compound between +1% and +3% for fiscal 2027. Management notes that the June World Cup/NBA impact is a non-recurring headwind that provides a favorable comparative base for the next year. - **Capital Expenditures**: FY2027 CapEx budget is $90 million, trending downward from $114 million in FY2026 and $194 million two years ago. Post-rebranding cycle, CapEx is expected to settle in the $70-$80 million range. - **Free Cash Flow**: Estimated around $50 million for FY2027, excluding asset sales. Goal is to pay down the revolving credit facility by June.

Segment performance

Total revenue grew 4% to $1.245 billion, with adjusted EBITDA at $333 million. While specific absolute revenue contributions for each segment were not broken down in the transcript, key performance metrics include: Retail bowling and shoe revenue compounded positively by 2.9%; Leagues grew 3.6%; Food sales compounded positively by 8%; Events turned positive in May and June after a period of decline; and Water Parks generated $56 million in trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue with $22 million in EBITDA, up from $23 million revenue and $11 million EBITDA in fiscal 2025.

Risks & headwinds

- **Weather Dependency**: Water park performance is highly sensitive to weather conditions; cold or rainy summers can severely impact attendance and season pass sales, creating volatility. - **External Event Disruptions**: Major sporting events (World Cup, NBA Finals) can temporarily divert consumer entertainment spending away from venues, as seen in June. - **Marketing ROI Uncertainty**: Previous doubling of marketing spend failed to generate sufficient intent/engagement, posing a risk if future targeted campaigns do not meet higher return thresholds. - **Operational Complexity**: Managing five directly operated water parks increases operational complexity and staffing challenges compared to the previous model. - **Portfolio Rationalization Risk**: Selling underperforming or peripheral assets may face valuation hurdles, though management views selective sales as accretive to leverage reduction.

Analyst Q&A

• Q: What factors are preventing margins from reaching the long-term 30% target in FY2027, and how should we view the margin trajectory? /

  A: CFO Bobby Lavan explained that pre-2022 properties run at a 42% four-wall EBITDA margin, while newer investments (built/acquired post-2022) run at 30%. The FY2027 guidance reflects the mix of these assets. He noted that the portfolio's revenue runs at approximately $900 million for the high-margin legacy sites and $300 million for the lower-margin newer sites, suggesting the current margin profile is consistent with the asset mix rather than a deviation from long-term goals.