Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Earnings
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is expected to report next earnings on October 26, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.37. KSPI has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of its last 8 reported quarters (average surprise -3.2% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | $2.87 | $2.83 | -1.4% | $2.3B | +0.3% |
| May 11, 2026 | $2.59 | $2.63 | +1.5% | $2.3B | +4.7% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $3.26 | $2.80 | -14.1% | $2.2B | -6.4% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $2.66 | $2.69 | +1.1% | $1.9B | -3.4% |
| May 16, 2025 | $2.63 | $2.59 | -1.5% | $1.6B | +14.4% |
| Oct 18, 2024 | $2.90 | $2.72 | -6.2% | $1.4B | -9.5% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $2.74 | $2.21 | -19.3% | $1.3B | +6.5% |
| Apr 30, 2024 | $2.65 | $2.60 | -1.9% | $1.2B | — |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 10, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Strategic Priorities - E-commerce is the company's top strategic priority in both Kazakhstan and Turkey, as the segment enables the most value creation for consumers and merchants via connecting buyers and sellers. - The company is entering a new development phase focused on building an integrated personal AI assistant for all super app services, starting with e-commerce shopping. - Long-term growth in Turkey will be fueled by integrating fintech products into the existing e-commerce marketplace, leveraging the company's core expertise in combining fintech and e-commerce. ### AI Product Launch (Kasper) - Launched July 1, 2026, integrated into the Kaspi super app for all consumers in Kazakhstan, starting with shopping assistance. - The AI understands natural language/voice text requests, asks clarifying questions, compares products, and guides users directly to checkout across 22 product categories (the full Kazakhstan e-commerce catalog of 20 million products). - Early encouraging metrics: 20% of eligible users use the tool, average response time of 3 seconds, 80% of conversations end with a product recommendation, 60% lead users to a specific product, and product discovery and checkout are 30-50% faster than traditional search. - The company's core priorities for Kasper are building consumer trust via accurate, relevant, fast recommendations, with plans to expand to additional use cases across the super app and scale to Turkey in the future. - Investments in a modern in-house data center completed last year enable low-cost, scalable deployment of the AI tool for the Kazakh market. ### Turkey Updates - Completed acquisition of Rabobank and secured a local banking license, with plans to invest $300 million in capital to build out fintech capabilities, with no material financial impact expected in 2026 and full product rollouts planned for 2027. - Launched a pilot of new consumer shopping loans on the Hepsi Burada platform, which already makes up 0.54% of June GMV; cash loan pilots are underway, with plans to launch a full suite of consumer and merchant fintech products plus savings accounts in 2027. - Current strategy prioritizes foundational improvements (consumer experience, delivery speed, merchant onboarding) over rapid top-line growth, with 15% year-over-year growth in transaction frequency recorded. ### Capital Return - The board recommends an 18% increase in the quarterly dividend compared to Q1 2026, reflecting the company's strong financial position.
Guidance
- Full year GMV growth guidance is maintained at around 20%; H1 growth is 17%, with faster growth expected in H2 driven by promotional timing and new product initiatives. - Full year TPV growth guidance is maintained at around 15%; H1 growth is 13%, with expected downward pressure from continued inflation moderation, partially offset by incremental volumes from new Apple Pay integration for overseas travel over the summer. - Full year average net loan portfolio growth guidance is maintained at 15% (H1 growth was 20%). - Full year EBITDA growth guidance is maintained at around 15%; H1 growth is 7%, with the full benefit of the recent 100 bps cut to 3-month deposit rates (covering ~30% of total deposits) will mostly be felt in 2027 rather than 2026, as full repricing takes 3 months.
Segment performance
1. **Marketplace**: Reported revenue grew 11.9% year-over-year, while EBITDA grew 9% year-over-year. Constant currency GMV increased 15% YoY, driven by a 28% YoY increase in e-commerce GMV (e-commerce and travel were broadly flat). Take rate increased 110 basis points to 12.1%, driven by growth in delivery and advertising value-added services. 1P e-commerce makes up 20% of total GMV, split between fast-growing e-grocery in Kazakhstan and electronics in Turkey. 2. **Payments**: TPV (Total Payment Volume) grew 13% YoY, with a slight moderation reflecting lower inflation. Take rate declined 7 basis points, consistent with long-term mix shifts toward Kaspi Pay. Reported revenue grew 5% YoY, while EBITDA declined 1% YoY, pressured by ongoing investments in Kaspi Alicant (pay-by-palm technology). 3. **FinTech**: Average net loan portfolio grew 18% YoY, with a strategic mix shift away from low-revenue short-duration BNPL toward higher-revenue longer-duration general purpose and merchant financing loans. Revenue grew 23% YoY (outpacing portfolio growth), while EBITDA grew 6% YoY. Cost of funding increased 150 bps, pressuring margins; total deposits grew 21% YoY. Cost of risk was 0.7%, flat quarter-over-quarter and up 10 bps YoY, with expected moderation in H2 2026. Overall company reported revenue grew 15% YoY, adjusted EBITDA grew 5% YoY.
Risks & headwinds
- Ongoing high interest rates in Kazakhstan have created cyclical pressure on net interest margins and funding costs, though the beginning of a rate cutting cycle is expected to turn this headwind into a tailwind over the next 1-2 years. - Turkish Lira depreciation versus the Kazakh Tenge creates negative reported currency translation impacts on revenue and EBITDA growth, especially for Turkey-based operations. - New product investments (e-commerce expansion, AI, Turkey fintech buildout) create near-term margin pressure, though management notes these investments are relatively small compared to the company's overall earnings generation capacity.
Analyst Q&A
Q: How will deposit rate trends evolve going forward, and what are the differences between e-commerce growth strategies in Kazakhstan and Turkey?
A: The company will adjust deposit rates based on market dynamics; the recent 100 bps cut applies to 3-month savings products that make up 30% of the deposit base, with full positive impact coming after a 3-month repricing period. In Kazakhstan, the e-commerce strategy focuses on vertical-by-vertical expansion, with fast-growing e-grocery driving engagement and growth. In Turkey, the strategy prioritizes foundational improvements to consumer and merchant experience over rapid top-line growth, with 15% year-over-year growth in transaction frequency already recorded, and H1 order growth of just under 18% when adjusting for 2025 retail disruption.
Q: Why was EBITDA guidance maintained despite better than expected H1 growth and upcoming deposit rate cuts, and what are early Kasper AI metrics and expected investment costs?
A: The recent deposit rate cut was implemented after Q2, and full repricing will take 3 months, so only minimal benefit will be realized in 2026, with the full impact coming in 2027. Early Kasper metrics are very encouraging, with a focus on building user trust via accurate, fast performance rather than near-term revenue gains. Pre-existing investments in a domestic data center mean deployment costs are very reasonable for the Kazakh market, and the transactional focus of the tool (driving completed purchases) gives Kaspi a competitive advantage over generic chatbots, with scalable costs that can support expansion to other markets.
Q: What are Kaspi's 2027 growth plans for Turkey, and how long will it take for rate cuts to flow through to earnings?
A: 2027 growth in Turkey will come from continued e-commerce user experience and delivery speed improvements, plus the rollout of a full suite of fintech products: consumer shopping loans, merchant inventory financing, and consumer savings products. The $300 million allocated for bank capital provides a strong base to scale these offerings. If inflation continues to fall and the central bank cuts rates sustainably, deposit rates will follow over time. Rate cuts this year primarily boost confidence in 2027 earnings growth, as full repricing of deposits takes time, similar to the gradual impact seen when rates were rising over the past two and a half years.
Q: What impact has the new national QR payment system had on Kaspi's payments business and take rates?
A: Kaspi collaborated with the National Bank to build a scalable, secure national payment network, and the new system has not negatively impacted Kaspi's payment volumes. Consumers in Kazakhstan still overwhelmingly transact via Kaspi QR or the Kaspi mobile app for domestic purchases, while new Apple Pay/Google Pay integration has brought positive incremental volume from consumers traveling internationally. Consumers are free to choose their preferred payment method, and Kaspi continues to process most payments through its existing network with no negative impact on take rates.