The Hershey Company (HSY) Earnings
The Hershey Company is expected to report next earnings on October 29, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.09. HSY has beaten EPS estimates in 10 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +22.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $1.42 | $1.90 | +33.8% | $2.8B | +5.3% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $2.03 | $2.35 | +15.9% | $3.1B | +2.7% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $1.42 | $1.71 | +20.7% | $3.1B | +3.6% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $1.09 | $1.30 | +19.0% | $3.2B | +2.1% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $0.99 | $1.21 | +21.6% | $2.6B | +4.8% |
| May 1, 2025 | $1.96 | $2.09 | +6.6% | $2.8B | -0.3% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $2.39 | $2.69 | +12.6% | $2.9B | +2.1% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $2.56 | $2.34 | -8.6% | $3.0B | -2.9% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $1.46 | $1.27 | -12.7% | $2.1B | -10.6% |
| May 3, 2024 | $2.77 | $3.07 | +10.8% | $3.3B | +4.4% |
| Feb 8, 2024 | $1.96 | $2.02 | +3.2% | $2.7B | -2.6% |
| Oct 26, 2023 | $2.45 | $2.60 | +6.1% | $3.0B | +2.3% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · July 30, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Overall Q2 2026 Performance - Reported upside to consensus estimates for both organic sales and EPS, driven in part by faster-than-expected retail inventory replenishment after low inventory levels following Q2 price pack changes, and stronger-than-expected growth in nonmeasured channels (led by foodservice). - Price elasticities are tracking slightly better than full-year 2026 assumptions, with stable performance across consumer cohorts despite macro uncertainty. - Supply Chain and Capacity Updates - The Dots salty snack brand has experienced growing pains keeping up with strong consumer demand, leading to temporary higher logistics costs; most of these challenges are now behind the company, with pre-planned automation and capacity investments coming online in 2027 to support future growth. - Halloween 2026 production is fully aligned with demand, with shipping already underway and strong retailer partner support for activation plans. - Innovation and Marketing - A robust innovation and merchandising calendar is planned for H2 2026, including new Hershey Cream Bars, a supporting marketing campaign tied to the new Hershey movie, and expanded placement of Dots in salty snack consumption moments like fall football. - Tentpole marketing activations (such as summer 250th anniversary celebrations and s'mores promotions) have exceeded expectations, driving incremental growth between key seasonal periods and supplementing core everyday and seasonal business. - Capital Allocation - Organic investment in innovation and capacity remains the top capital allocation priority, followed by selective M&A. There are no additional planned share buybacks for H2 2026, but the company remains opportunistic and has existing authorization for future deployment.
Guidance
- Full-year 2026 guidance was only modestly increased despite H1 upside, as management maintains prudence around macroeconomic uncertainty and plans to reinvest H1 upside into the H2 innovation calendar. Gross margin guidance was slightly revised down from 400 basis points of improvement to just below 400 basis points, primarily due to lingering salty snack supply chain costs; a significant gross margin lift is still expected in H2 2026, with Q3 expected to deliver the strongest year-over-year earnings growth as the company laps the peak of 2025 cocoa costs and full tariff impacts. - The 2027 long-term financial framework (including 2% to 4% annual long-term enterprise organic sales growth, with 2% as the starting baseline for North America Confectionery due to 2027's shorter Easter season) remains achievable as of mid-2026, with no changes to the framework despite ongoing commodity volatility. - Management expects cocoa cost deflation in 2027, even if futures remain at current levels, with current hedging strategies allowing the company to capture further deflation as markets normalize. Volume trends are expected to improve gradually through H2 2026 and into 2027 as commodity inflation eases and price elasticities normalize. - Impact from FDA nicotine product restrictions (SNAP) has been in line with plans, with early-adopting states seeing slightly higher impact and later-adopting states (Texas, Florida) seeing lower impact, leading to a net outcome slightly better than planned for 2026.
Segment performance
The transcript does not provide explicit absolute financial results or revenue contribution percentages for each product segment. Key performance observations are: 1) North America Confectionery: U.S. retail consumption was understated by ~2 percentage points in scanner data due to nonmeasured channel growth and Easter shipment timing; the segment is expected to deliver organic net sales growth in both Q3 and Q4 2026 despite tough year-over-year comparables from 2025's large RESISOREO innovation. 2) Salty Snacks: Operating margins came in below expectations due to supply chain challenges for the Dots brand, with elevated spot freight and logistics costs creating temporary margin pressure; modest margin improvement is expected in H2 2026 as supply chain optimization progresses, with full optimization expected by 2027. 3) International: Top line momentum is strong with strong performance in Brazil, the U.K., and India, but delayed pass-through of higher cocoa costs and elevated logistics costs have created near-term margin pressure; continued optimization work in H2 2026 is expected to set up long-term margin improvement, with no structural change to the long-term growth outlook.
Risks & headwinds
- Macroeconomic uncertainty and consumer sensitivity to pricing remain ongoing risks, with low-income households still facing greater pressure that could impact elasticities. - Cocoa price volatility driven by El Nino supply speculation continues, though management believes current elevated prices are not sustainable long-term given healthy global inventories and more diversified supply. - Tough year-over-year comparables in H2 2026, driven by the highly successful RESISOREO innovation launch in 2025, create headwinds for year-over-year growth. - lingering supply chain constraints for the Dots salty snack brand create temporary margin pressure and require continued reliance on more expensive spot freight through the end of 2026.
Analyst Q&A
Q: With H2 2026 comparables tough after 2025's large RESISOREO innovation, why wasn't full-year guidance raised more significantly after H2 upside? /
A: Management notes faster-than-expected inventory replenishment occurred in Q2 that was originally planned to occur gradually over the full year. The team maintains prudence amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, and plans to reinvest H1 upside into the packed H2 2026 innovation calendar. Management expects solid full-year growth, with particularly strong 2-year stacked growth despite the tough H2 comps.
Q: What caused supply chain issues for the Dots business, and are the issues resolved? /
A: Strong consumer demand for Dots outpaced existing capacity, leading to higher spot freight costs and lower-than-planned throughput that pushed segment operating margins below expectations. Pre-planned automation and capacity investments were already in motion before the issues emerged, with new capacity coming online in 2027. Management says the majority of growing pains are now behind the business, with only a small tail of elevated costs expected in H2 2026. Dots remains a key long-term growth driver for the salty snack segment.
Q: How does the 2025 Investor Day 2027 target framework hold up halfway through 2026, and how dependent are 2027 EPS targets on organic sales hitting the growth range? /
A: The 2% to 4% long-term annual organic growth range remains intact, with 2% as the expected baseline for North America Confectionery in 2027 due to the year's shorter Easter season, with Salt and International segments adding accretion to hit the overall enterprise range. Management confirms the existing framework is still achievable, with good visibility into 2027 cocoa deflation even at current futures prices, and built sufficient flexibility into the plan to manage ongoing commodity and consumer volatility.
Q: What is driving the understatement of confectionery consumption growth in standard scanner data, and how large is the gap? /
A: The 3% year-over-year U.S. confection retail consumption growth reported in scanner data understates actual underlying demand by approximately 2 percentage points. The largest contributor to this gap is stronger-than-expected growth in nonmeasured channels, led by foodservice. Additional factors include year-over-year Easter shipment timing concentration and one point of growth from inventory replenishment after low Q1 inventory levels post-price pack transition. The gap between shipments and consumption is expected to narrow significantly in H2 2026.