Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
- Open
- 9.95
- Day high
- 10.01
- Day low
- 9.80
- Prev close
- 9.98
- Volume
- 628K
- Mkt cap
- $984M
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- EPS (TTM)
- —
- P/B
- 1.2
- P/S
- 0.2
- Yield
- —
- Per share
- —
- ▲Insiders net buying $141K over the last 3 months (2 open-market buys, 0 sales)
- 🏛Institutions mixed (13F)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) is a Consumer Defensive company listed on NASDAQ. The stock is down 23% over the past year. Over the trailing 3 months, insiders filed 2 open-market buys and 0 sales (SEC Form 4).
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) financials & analyst ratings
Fundamentals (TTM)
Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
Source: exchange market data + company filings. Figures are trailing-twelve-month or as most recently reported. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
GO earnings date, history & EPS estimates
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | $0.02 | $0.05 | +150.0% | $1.2B | +1.4% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.21 | $0.19 | -9.5% | $1.2B | +1.9% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.19 | $0.21 | +10.5% | $1.2B | -4.9% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | $0.16 | $0.18 | +12.5% | $990M | +1.0% |
| Feb 28, 2023 | $0.23 | $0.25 | +8.7% | $931M | +2.2% |
| Mar 1, 2022 | $0.20 | $0.20 | +0.0% | $783M | +0.8% |
| Mar 2, 2021 | $0.23 | $0.24 | +4.3% | $807M | -69.0% |
| Mar 24, 2020 | $0.17 | $0.21 | +23.5% | $656M | +16.7% |
| Aug 13, 2019 | $0.13 | $0.20 | +53.8% | $645M | +31.3% |
| Jun 20, 2019 | — | $-0.06 | — | $585M | — |
GO insider trading activity (SEC Form 4)
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | Miller Paul Blaineofficer: See Remarks | Buy | 5,000 | $9.50 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Miller Paul Blaineofficer: See Remarks | Buy | 10,000 | $9.37 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Leary Susan Michelleofficer: SVP, Accounting | Grant | 4,433 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Miller Paul Blaineofficer: See Remarks | Grant | 41,146 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Leary Susan Michelleofficer: SVP, Accounting | Grant | 6,650 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Ferry Ian Danielofficer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer | Grant | 12,893 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Ferry Ian Danielofficer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer | Grant | 19,339 | — |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Miller Paul Blaineofficer: See Remarks | Grant | 27,431 | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Jaros Carey F.director | Grant | 18,868 | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | York Jeffreydirector | Grant | 18,868 | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | HABEN MARY KAYdirector | Grant | 18,868 | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Allen Frances L.director | Grant | 22,022 | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Lindberg Eric J. Jr.director | Grant | 18,868 | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Molloy Lawrencedirector | Grant | 18,868 | — |
| Jun 2, 2026 | THORNTON FELICIA Ddirector | Grant | 22,022 | — |
Source: GO SEC Form 4 filings, latest Jun 29, 2026. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
See the full GO insider & 13F page →Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. company profile
Overview
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:GO) is a discount grocery retailer founded in 1946 and headquartered in Emeryville, California. The company operates a unique "treasure hunt" shopping model through a network of independently operated stores across the United States. Going public in 2019, Grocery Outlet has grown from its California roots to become a regional discount grocery chain with 543 stores across 16 states as of 2025. The company has experienced significant leadership changes in recent years, with Jason Potter appointed as CEO in 2024 following a period of operational challenges and strategic refocusing.
Business
Grocery Outlet operates discount grocery stores that follow an opportunistic buying model, purchasing excess inventory, overstock, and closeout products from national brand manufacturers at significant discounts. This allows the company to offer customers savings of up to 40% compared to conventional grocery stores while maintaining healthy margins. The company's stores carry a wide range of products including fresh produce, dairy and deli items, meat and seafood, frozen foods, pantry staples, health and beauty products, and general merchandise. What sets Grocery Outlet apart is its "treasure hunt" shopping experience - the product mix changes frequently based on available opportunistic buys, creating an element of discovery for customers who never know exactly what deals they might find. The business operates through a unique independent operator model where individual store operators, rather than corporate employees, manage day-to-day store operations. These operators have significant autonomy in merchandising decisions and share in the profits of their stores, creating strong incentives for performance. This model helps the company maintain lower labor costs while leveraging the entrepreneurial drive of local operators who understand their specific markets. Grocery Outlet has been expanding both organically through new store openings and through acquisitions, including the 2023 purchase of United Grocery Outlet, which added 40 stores in the Southeast and provided a platform for further expansion in that region. The company has also been investing in technology initiatives including mobile apps, e-commerce partnerships with delivery services like Instacart and DoorDash, and the development of private label products to enhance margins and customer loyalty.
Revenue model
Grocery Outlet generates revenue primarily through product sales at its retail locations, operating on a traditional retail markup model. The company purchases excess inventory and closeout products from manufacturers at deep discounts - typically 40-60% below wholesale prices - then sells these products to consumers at prices that are still 20-40% below conventional grocery store prices while maintaining gross margins around 30%. The company's independent operator model is central to its profitability structure. Store operators pay the company a percentage of their store's gross profit in exchange for inventory, real estate, and operational support. This arrangement reduces Grocery Outlet's direct labor costs while incentivizing operators to maximize sales and minimize waste. The operators essentially function as franchisees but with a profit-sharing rather than franchise fee structure. Several factors influence the company's margins and profitability. Opportunistic buying opportunities are crucial - when manufacturers have excess inventory due to packaging changes, seasonal overstock, or discontinued products, Grocery Outlet can secure better pricing. Economic downturns often increase these opportunities as manufacturers need to clear inventory quickly. Conversely, supply chain disruptions or strong retail demand can reduce available opportunistic inventory. Operational efficiency significantly impacts margins, particularly inventory management and shrinkage control. The company has faced challenges with systems implementation that have affected inventory visibility and ordering processes. Real estate costs also matter substantially, as the company typically leases rather than owns its store locations. Competition from other discount retailers, dollar stores, and promotional activities by traditional grocers can pressure pricing power and customer traffic.
Competitive moat
Grocery Outlet's competitive moat is moderate but faces structural challenges. The company's primary advantage lies in its specialized relationships with manufacturers for opportunistic buying, which requires significant scale, established trust, and sophisticated logistics capabilities to execute effectively. These supplier relationships, built over decades, create some barriers to entry for competitors seeking to replicate the model. The independent operator model provides another layer of competitive advantage by reducing labor costs and leveraging local market knowledge, while the "treasure hunt" shopping experience creates customer engagement that differs from traditional grocery shopping. However, this moat has notable weaknesses. The business model is inherently difficult to scale efficiently, as evidenced by the company's ongoing systems implementation challenges and execution issues when expanding into non-adjacent markets. The opportunistic buying model, while advantageous, also creates inventory unpredictability that can frustrate customers seeking consistent product availability. Competition is intensifying from multiple directions. Dollar stores like Dollar General and Dollar Tree compete directly for price-conscious consumers and have proven more scalable. Traditional grocers have become more aggressive with promotional pricing and private label offerings. Warehouse clubs like Costco offer bulk savings that can rival Grocery Outlet's per-unit pricing. Additionally, e-commerce and delivery services are changing shopping patterns, particularly among younger consumers, while Grocery Outlet's model is inherently tied to physical store visits. The company's moat appears to be narrowing rather than widening, with operational execution challenges suggesting the business model may have inherent scalability limitations that prevent it from achieving the operational leverage needed to compete effectively against more standardized retail formats.
Risks & safety
The margin of safety appears limited with concerning financial trends despite reasonable balance sheet strength. **Liquidity and Solvency:** - Cash position of $51 million with current ratio of 1.25, indicating adequate short-term liquidity - Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.48 shows moderate leverage but manageable debt levels - Negative free cash flow of -$6.3 million in Q1 2025 raises concerns about cash generation - Operating cash flow positive at $59 million suggests core operations generate cash despite capex needs **Valuation Metrics:** - EV/EBITDA of 88x based on Q1 2025 EBITDA appears extremely elevated due to weak earnings - Price-to-book ratio of 1.10 suggests reasonable asset valuation - Recent net losses indicate profitability pressures **Other Considerations:** - Declining comparable store sales growth and margin pressures suggest operational headwinds - Leadership turnover and ongoing systems implementation issues create execution risk - Market cap of ~$1.3 billion for a company with ~$4.4 billion annual revenue suggests modest valuation expectations
Recent development
Grocery Outlet has undergone significant strategic and operational changes over the past few years, marked by leadership transitions and a refocusing on core business fundamentals. In 2024, the company experienced a major leadership overhaul with Jason Potter appointed as CEO, replacing RJ Sheedy who stepped down amid operational challenges. The company also brought in Chris Miller as CFO and Kumar Mishra as CIO, signaling a comprehensive management refresh. The company has been grappling with systems implementation challenges related to its SAP transition, which has impacted inventory management, ordering processes, and overall operational efficiency. These issues have contributed to reduced comparable store sales growth and margin pressures, leading management to narrow its strategic focus and reduce the pace of new store openings from aggressive expansion plans to a more measured 33-35 net new stores in 2025. Geographic expansion has been a key initiative, with the 2023 acquisition of United Grocery Outlet adding 40 stores in the Southeast and providing a platform for further regional growth. However, the company has acknowledged that expansion into non-adjacent markets has been more challenging than expected, leading to a strategic pivot toward focusing on existing and adjacent markets. The company has been investing in technology and digital capabilities, including the development of mobile apps, e-commerce partnerships with delivery services, and the implementation of real-time ordering systems to improve inventory management. Additionally, Grocery Outlet has launched a private label program, introducing 180 items by the end of 2024 with plans to add 150 more in 2025, aimed at improving margins and enhancing the customer value proposition. Recent quarters have shown operational pressures including inventory shrinkage issues, margin compression, and softer customer basket sizes despite maintaining traffic growth, leading to revised guidance and a focus on cost reduction initiatives including distribution center consolidation and workforce optimization.
GO company profile · for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
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