Gerdau S.A. (GGB) Earnings
Gerdau S.A. is expected to report next earnings on October 26, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.15. GGB has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise -13.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $0.15 | $0.15 | +0.0% | $3.5B | +2.2% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $0.15 | $0.10 | -33.3% | $3.3B | -0.6% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $0.11 | $0.10 | -9.1% | $3.4B | +9.1% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.09 | $0.08 | -11.1% | $3.2B | -1.6% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.12 | $0.06 | -50.0% | $2.7B | -12.7% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | $0.07 | $0.09 | +28.6% | $3.0B | -1.9% |
| May 3, 2024 | $0.09 | $0.12 | +33.3% | $3.2B | +0.3% |
| Feb 20, 2024 | $0.59 | $0.41 | -30.5% | $3.0B | -3.9% |
| May 3, 2023 | $0.27 | $0.29 | +7.4% | $3.7B | -2.0% |
| Mar 1, 2023 | $1.37 | $0.12 | -91.1% | $3.4B | -8.2% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | $0.29 | $0.27 | -6.9% | $3.9B | -2.0% |
| Aug 3, 2022 | $0.34 | $0.40 | +17.6% | $4.4B | +2.5% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 5, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Consolidated Financial Performance - Consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached 3.4 billion BRL, the highest level since Q3 2023, with growth quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year - Adjusted net income rose 45% quarter-over-quarter to 1.5 billion BRL - Dividends approved: 23 cents per share for Gerdau S.A., 11 cents per share for Metallurgica Gerdau - The share buyback program for Gerdau S.A. is 31% complete as of Q2 2026 closing - Leverage remains low with a 0.69x net debt/EBITDA ratio (12-month trailing), maintaining a solid balance sheet - Positive free cash flow of 237 million BRL in Q2; first half 2026 free cash flow is 2.3 billion BRL higher than H1 2025, driven by North American EBITDA growth and lower CAPEX ### Strategic Operational Progress - The Miguel Bernard mining expansion project remains on schedule, with commercial operations starting in Q3 2026; full ramp-up is expected to deliver 1.1 billion BRL in annual operational and financial benefits - A new recycling center in Pindamonhangaba is nearing opening, improving raw material cost competitiveness and reducing exposure to scrap price volatility - Technical adjustments have extended the lifespan of key assets (blast furnace 1 and coking plant at Ouro Branco, Brazil), allowing capex dilution over future years - Decarbonization and competitiveness goals are supported by increased self-generated energy capacity in Brazil
Guidance
- Management maintains conservative guidance for North American Q3 2026 margins: recent August 2026 price increases for special steel and beams are not fully reflected in projections, creating material upside risk if price hikes are fully implemented - A one-off 150 million BRL negative impact from fixed cost absorption is expected for Q3 2026 related to the Midlothian plant melt shop maintenance shutdown; no shipment declines are anticipated due to sufficient pre-built billet inventory - 2026 full-year CAPEX guidance of 4.7 billion BRL is tracking slightly below plan; long-term annual maintenance capex is expected to fall from the prior 3 billion BRL baseline, with freed-up capital reallocated to long-term competitiveness and transformation projects - The Miguel Bernard expansion ramp-up is expected to be completed by end-2026, with full operational benefits realized in 2027 - A full long-term transformation plan for Brazilian operations will be presented to investors within the next few months - Full anti-dumping investigation results for imported long and flat steel products (including HRC from China) are expected by the end of 2026, with updates in H2 2026
Segment performance
1. North America: Shipments grew 7% year-over-year, with resilient demand across key end markets and a strong order backlog. Adjusted EBITDA increased 15% quarter-over-quarter, driven by solid plant operating performance and two-digit growth in shipments. Import penetration is marginal for core products (structural beams, merchant bars), limiting competitive pressure. 2. Brazil: Results saw slight quarter-over-quarter improvement amid continued high levels of imported steel (despite a period-on-period slowdown). There is moderate demand growth in consumer sectors including construction and manufacturing, with higher contribution from improved sales mix in heavy vehicles and special steels. The acquisition of a larger stake in Dona Francisca Energetica raised self-generated energy coverage to over 50% of Gerdau's Brazil consumption, improving cost competitiveness.
Risks & headwinds
- Sustained high levels of imported steel in Brazil continue to pressure domestic market pricing and profitability, even after recent slowdown in import growth - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have driven higher freight costs in North America (up 8.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026), with lingering upward pressure expected going forward - U.S. automotive demand remains soft due to vehicle affordability issues and an aging fleet, temporarily suppressing demand for Gerdau's special steel products - Seasonal scrap price upside risk exists in late 2026 due to typical winter reduction in scrap collection activity - Delays in electromechanical and civil construction work for large capital projects in Brazil have historically impacted project timelines, creating execution risk for future investments - The unresolved semi-finished volume mismatch at Ouro Branco (historically exported at lower margins, with shrinking export opportunities) creates ongoing pressure to reallocate capacity for higher profitability
Analyst Q&A
Q: Management gave conservative U.S. margin guidance despite recent price increases, and analysts asked about the outlook for U.S. market cycles and potential Mexican investment. /
A: Management confirmed conservative guidance comes from the need to wait for recent price increases to take effect across different customer segments, plus the temporary one-time cost impact of the Midlothian plant maintenance shutdown. No shipment declines are expected due to pre-built inventory, and underlying demand for steel from data centers, renewable energy, and infrastructure projects remains very strong with no imminent risk of backlog contraction. Regarding Mexico, USMCA negotiations are progressing on technical issues, with no material near-term risks to Gerdau, and no updates to past potential investment plans at this time.
Q: With net debt/EBITDA well below management's 1x informal comfort level, how is capital allocation strategy changing, and what are the updated economics of the Miguel Bernard project amid lower iron ore prices? /
A: Management clarified that the 1x level is a comfort ceiling, not a target, so there is no need to deliberately increase leverage to reach a target. Excess free cash flow will continue to be prioritized for shareholder returns via dividends and share buybacks, as well as further balance sheet deleveraging driven by EBITDA growth. For Miguel Bernard, the project was originally modeled on a $90/ton iron ore benchmark (lower than recent peak prices), and the main focus remains on delivering the projected $30/ton cash cost to improve Ouro Branco competitiveness. Full ramp-up will be completed by end-2026, with full benefits realized in 2027, and surplus ore will be sold only after internal requirements are met.
Q: What is Gerdau's long-term strategy for Brazil amid persistent high imports and slow demand, and what is the roadmap for margin expansion? /
A: Management confirmed that Gerdau is preparing for a long-term landscape of continued high import competition in Brazil, and is working on a comprehensive operational transformation plan similar to the successful transformation completed in North America years ago. Recent capacity adjustments (such as the Recife mill closure) have already aligned the company's footprint with current demand. Short-term margin expansion will come from improved sales mix, higher productivity from additional working days in Q3, and cost reductions at Ouro Branco once Miguel Bernard ramps up. The plan will be shared with investors in the next few months.
Q: What is the outlook for dividend payouts next year amid lower expected capex and potential non-core asset divestitures? /
A: Management confirmed that Gerdau has a portfolio of three major projects (Miguel Bernard expansion, Pindamonhangaba recycling center, Midlothian expansion) expected to add 1.4-1.5 billion BRL in annual EBITDA once fully operational. Gerdau does not aim to hold a net cash position, but will not increase leverage aggressively to boost shareholder returns given Brazil's high interest rate environment and accumulated tax losses. Any excess cash generation from lower capex or divestitures will be returned to shareholders efficiently via dividends or buybacks, consistent with the company's historical capital return commitments.