CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
- Open
- 127.87
- Day high
- 132.22
- Day low
- 126.72
- Prev close
- 125.77
- Volume
- 3.2M
- Mkt cap
- $19.7B
- P/E (TTM)
- 9.6
- EPS (TTM)
- $13.52
- P/B
- 3.4
- P/S
- 2.5
- Yield
- 1.62%
- Per share
- $2.10
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is a Basic Materials company listed on NYSE. The stock is up 45% over the past year. Drillr has 3 published research articles covering CF.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) financials & analyst ratings
Fundamentals (TTM)
Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
Source: exchange market data + company filings. Figures are trailing-twelve-month or as most recently reported. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
CF earnings date, history & EPS estimates
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | $5.63 | $4.73 | -16.0% | $2.2B | -9.3% |
| Jun 4, 2026 | $2.63 | $2.89 | +9.9% | $2.0B | +8.0% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $2.50 | $2.99 | +19.6% | $1.9B | +4.9% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $2.16 | $2.19 | +1.4% | $1.7B | -0.5% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $2.50 | $2.37 | -5.2% | $1.9B | +4.8% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $1.54 | $1.89 | +22.7% | $1.5B | +1.5% |
| May 1, 2024 | $1.52 | $0.90 | -40.7% | $1.5B | +1.9% |
| Feb 14, 2024 | $1.60 | $1.58 | -1.0% | $1.6B | -4.8% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | $0.96 | $0.85 | -11.4% | $1.3B | -4.7% |
| Aug 2, 2023 | $2.25 | $2.71 | +20.4% | $1.8B | +30.7% |
| May 1, 2023 | $2.52 | $2.90 | +15.1% | $2.0B | +0.8% |
| Feb 15, 2023 | $4.30 | $4.28 | -0.5% | $2.6B | -7.8% |
CF insider trading activity (SEC Form 4)
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Scribner Andrewofficer: EVP and CFO | Grant | 6,464 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Madrazo Yris Jesusdirector | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Williams Trevor Leighofficer: SVP, Manufacturing & Dist'n | Grant | 4,184 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Ellerbusch Susan Adirector | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | White Celso L.director | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Wagler Theresa Edirector | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Noonan Anne Pdirector | Grant | 2,208 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Ahmed Javeddirector | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | ARZBAECHER ROBERT Cdirector | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | DeHaas Deborah Ldirector | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | EAVES JOHN Wdirector | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Apr 30, 2026 | TOELLE MICHAELdirector | Grant | 1,390 | — |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Hoker Richard Aofficer: VP and Corporate Controller | Sell | 3,499 | $125.38 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Mayer Erik M.officer: VP, Clean Energy & BusDevelop | Sell | 1,500 | $124.69 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Frost Bert Aofficer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Sell | 6,000 | $126.00 |
Source: CF SEC Form 4 filings, latest May 28, 2026. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
See the full CF insider & 13F page →CF research & analysis
Fertilizer Price Surge: CF's 41% Margins Lead MOS and NTR as Trump Probe Looms
Trump's April 11 pledge to curb fertilizer gouging amid Iran tensions highlights producers like CF, MOS, and NTR as winners from sustained price surges, while ADM, DE, and AGCO face margin squeezes from cost-stressed farmers. Backed by FY2025 financials, CF tops conviction with 41% margins and cheap valuation.
MOSNTRADMCF, MOS, NTR: Iran Supply Squeeze Drives Fertilizer Prices — Top 3 Ranked by Conviction
Trump's anti-gouging pledge amid Iran tensions spotlights US fertilizer producers' upside from West Asia supply squeezes. CF, MOS, and NTR lead with strong financials and exposure, ranked for conviction amid tightening markets.
MOSNTRCTVAS&P 500's Best Week in 4 Months: 6 Cross-Sector Winners to Buy Now
The S&P 500's strongest week in four months highlights cross-sector winners like MU, VLO, CF, NIO, NBIS, and IREN, each with strong recent gains, growth metrics, and thematic tailwinds. Ranked by conviction, they offer positioning for continued broadening. Key risks include macro slowdowns and sector rotations.
MUVLONIO
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. company profile
Overview
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) is a leading North American manufacturer of nitrogen-based fertilizers and industrial chemicals, founded in 1946 and headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. The company went public in 2005 and has evolved from a regional fertilizer cooperative into one of the world's largest nitrogen producers. CF Industries operates a network of manufacturing facilities across North America, producing essential agricultural inputs that support global food production while also expanding into clean energy applications through low-carbon ammonia projects.
Business
CF Industries operates in the agricultural inputs sector, specifically manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilizers and chemicals that are essential for modern agriculture. Nitrogen fertilizers provide plants with the nitrogen nutrient necessary for protein synthesis and chlorophyll production, making them critical for crop yields. Without adequate nitrogen, plants cannot achieve their growth potential, making these products indispensable for feeding the global population. The company's core products include anhydrous ammonia (the basic building block for all nitrogen fertilizers), granular urea (the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer globally), urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) (a liquid fertilizer popular in North America), and ammonium nitrate products. CF also produces diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), which is required for modern diesel engines to meet emissions standards, and various industrial chemicals including nitric acid and aqua ammonia. The company operates as a single business segment focused on nitrogen products, with revenue derived from both domestic sales to North American farmers and international exports. CF's manufacturing network includes major facilities in Louisiana, Mississippi, and other strategic locations that leverage access to low-cost natural gas, the primary feedstock for ammonia production. The company serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users across agricultural and industrial markets.
Revenue model
CF Industries generates revenue primarily through product sales of nitrogen-based fertilizers and chemicals. The company sells directly to agricultural cooperatives, independent distributors, and industrial customers, with pricing typically following global commodity market dynamics. Revenue is seasonal, with peak demand occurring during North American planting seasons (spring) and fall application periods. The business model benefits from CF's position as a low-cost producer due to access to abundant North American natural gas resources. Natural gas serves as both the primary feedstock and energy source for ammonia production, representing approximately 70-80% of production costs. This creates a significant competitive advantage over international producers, particularly in Europe and Asia, where energy costs are substantially higher. Key factors that increase margins include: 1. Low natural gas prices in North America due to shale gas production, 2. Strong global agricultural demand driven by population growth and dietary changes, 3. Supply constraints in other regions due to high energy costs or geopolitical disruptions, 4. Seasonal demand spikes during planting seasons, and 5. Export opportunities when domestic demand is satisfied. Factors that can pressure margins include: 1. Rising North American natural gas prices, 2. Increased global nitrogen production capacity, 3. Weak agricultural commodity prices reducing farmer purchasing power, 4. Economic downturns affecting industrial demand, 5. Trade policy changes impacting export markets, and 6. Currency fluctuations affecting international competitiveness. The company's flexible manufacturing system allows optimization between different nitrogen products based on relative margin opportunities.
Competitive moat
CF Industries possesses a moderate to strong economic moat based on several competitive advantages. The company's primary moat stems from its cost advantage as a North American producer with access to low-cost natural gas feedstock. This structural advantage has proven durable due to the abundance of shale gas resources, creating a significant cost differential versus international competitors, particularly in Europe and Asia where energy costs are substantially higher. The company also benefits from scale advantages through its large, efficient manufacturing facilities and geographic positioning near key agricultural markets and export terminals. CF's flexible production system allows rapid switching between different nitrogen products based on market conditions, providing operational advantages over less flexible competitors. However, the moat faces potential challenges. The commodity nature of nitrogen fertilizers limits pricing power, and the industry is subject to cyclical demand patterns. New production capacity, particularly in regions with low-cost feedstock access, could erode competitive positioning over time. Additionally, the emergence of alternative agricultural technologies such as precision agriculture, biological fertilizers, or genetically modified crops requiring less nitrogen input could pose long-term disruption risks. The company is attempting to strengthen its moat through investments in low-carbon ammonia production, which could command premium pricing and position CF favorably in emerging clean energy markets. However, this transition is still in early stages and faces execution risks and uncertain demand development.
Risks & safety
CF Industries demonstrates a strong margin of safety with robust financial positioning and reasonable valuation metrics. • Cash and Liquidity: $1.4 billion in cash and short-term investments as of Q1 2025, providing substantial financial flexibility. Strong free cash flow generation of $454 million in Q1 2025 alone. • Debt Management: Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.69, which is manageable for a capital-intensive business. No immediate solvency concerns given strong cash generation and current liquidity position. • Valuation Metrics: Trading at P/E ratio of 10.6x based on recent earnings, which appears reasonable for a cyclical business. EV/EBITDA of 942x in Q1 2025 appears distorted by unusually low EBITDA figure of $4 million, likely due to accounting adjustments. • Operational Efficiency: Manufacturing facilities operating at high utilization rates (100% ammonia utilization), indicating strong operational execution and demand for products. • Capital Returns: Aggressive capital return program with $2 billion in additional share repurchase authorization, demonstrating management confidence and commitment to shareholder returns.
Recent development
Over the past few years, CF Industries has undergone a significant strategic transformation toward clean energy and low-carbon products while maintaining its core nitrogen fertilizer business. The company has been advancing multiple carbon capture and sequestration projects, with the Donaldsonville facility project nearing completion and expected to begin operations in the second half of 2025. This project will enable CF to produce low-carbon ammonia eligible for 45Q tax credits. The most significant development is the Blue Point joint venture with Japanese partners JERA and Mitsui, representing a potential $4 billion investment in a greenfield low-carbon ammonia facility. CF expects to make a final investment decision in early 2025, with the company potentially owning 40-75% of the project. This facility would produce ammonia for both traditional fertilizer markets and emerging clean energy applications. CF has also been executing an aggressive capital return strategy, returning $1.9 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases. The company repurchased 18.8 million shares in 2024, representing 10% of outstanding shares, while maintaining strong operational performance with gross ammonia production reaching 9.8 million tons. The company has been optimizing its manufacturing network for flexibility, allowing rapid switching between ammonia, urea, UAN, and other products based on market conditions. Recent acquisitions, including the Waggaman facility, have expanded production capacity while maintaining the low-cost North American natural gas advantage.
CF company profile · for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
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