Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Earnings

Management highlights

- Project Completion and Operational Milestones • Completed the Mt. Holly expansion restart of 90 pots on time and on budget, returning the plant to full capacity by the end of June 26; the project increases total U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10% and added 150 full-time domestic manufacturing jobs. Minor post-restart plant instability is expected to be fully resolved by the end of Q3, with no impact beyond the quarter, and the project remains on track to repay capital costs by the end of 26. • Completed the restart of Potline 2 at Grundartangi (Iceland) 6 months ahead of the original timeline, reaching near-full production by the end of July 26. Line 2 is currently operating at slightly reduced amperage to avoid stress on repaired transformers, until new replacement units are installed in Q4 26. • Brought the new TG 4 power generation turbine online at Jamalco in early August 26, enabling full self-sufficient energy generation and eliminating expensive, unreliable purchases from the Jamaican grid. Full cost benefits will phase in through the remainder of 26, with an expected long-term benefit of ~$20 per ton of production. Jamalco continues to face modest headwinds from lower-quality bauxite from some mining areas, with a revised mining plan expected to take another two quarters to fully implement. • Sebree delivered another quarter of top-tier operating and financial performance, maintaining consistent strong results across the portfolio. - Market Conditions • Current aluminum pricing: LME at ~$3,250 per ton, U.S. Midwest premium at ~$1.11 per pound, European duty-paid premium at ~$500 per ton, with prices returning to pre-Strait of Hormuz conflict levels after the limited reopening of the strait. • Only EGA has announced restart plans for curtailed Middle Eastern production; no restarts have been announced in Bahrain or Qatar, and full production recovery is expected to be slow due to the complexity of potline restarts and still-disrupted supply chains. Century projects a global aluminum deficit of ~1 million tons in 26, with deficit conditions continuing into 2027. • U.S. aluminum demand remains strong, driven by power and data infrastructure buildout, commercial aerospace, defense/rearmament programs, and reshoring of downstream extrusion and fabrication following the closing of Section 232 tariff loopholes. Global aluminum inventory days of consumption have fallen below post-financial crisis lows and are approaching all-time records, with no system slack remaining. - Strategic Projects and Policy Developments • Century retains a 6.8% non-dilutive stake in the Hawesville data center project (after selling the site for $200 million in February 26), where partner TeraWulf has signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic for $19 billion in total expected lease revenue. Century has no development funding obligations, and the stake can be monetized to support the Oklahoma smelter project if needed. • The joint venture Oklahoma smelter project with Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) continues to progress, with detailed engineering by Bechtel ongoing, energy contract negotiations advancing, and financing work progressing. Final investment decision (FID) and groundbreaking are still expected by the end of 26, with first hot metal production by the end of 29. • A new Trump administration executive order incentivizes new U.S. aluminum production by allowing approved projects to import primary aluminum equal to their new domestic production at a 25% tariff (down from the 50% baseline). Century expects the Oklahoma project to be approved to import up to 750 thousand metric tons annually at the reduced rate (300 thousand tons for Century, 450 thousand tons for EGA) starting 2027, and will use this benefit to help fund Century’s share of the project. - Balance Sheet • Ended Q2 26 with $388 million in cash, repaid $66 million in debt during the quarter, and had no outstanding revolving credit facility borrowings at quarter-end. Net debt fell to $98 million, and as of the end of July 26, total cash on hand exceeds total outstanding debt. The balance sheet is the strongest it has ever been, with all short-term debt repaid. Major growth CapEx for the Mt. Holly and Grundartangi projects is complete, with only sustaining CapEx expected for the second half of 26.

Guidance

- Q3 26 adjusted EBITDA is expected to land in the range of $325 million to $345 million, representing a slight sequential increase from Q2 26’s $327 million. • Pricing: Expected lagged LME of $3,330 per ton ($75 per ton sequential increase), lagged U.S. Midwest premium of $1.09 per pound (3 cent sequential decrease), and European duty-paid premium of $520 per ton ($70 per ton sequential increase), resulting in a net $5 million to $10 million positive impact to adjusted EBITDA relative to Q2. • Cost headwinds: Expected $10 million to $15 million in energy headwinds from typical warm summer weather, plus a $5 million sequential headwind from moderate raw material input cost increases. Operating expenses are expected to remain flat sequentially. • Volume: Increased production and shipments from the full Mt. Holly expansion are expected to add $15 million to $25 million to adjusted EBITDA sequentially. • Additional expected impacts: A $20 million to $25 million headwind from realized hedge settlements, and a $10 million to $15 million tax expense, both impacting adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share. • The FID and groundbreaking for the new Oklahoma smelter is still expected by the end of 2026, with first hot metal production targeted for the end of 2029. The $500 million DOE grant for the project remains secured and on track, with no changes to the payout timeline.

Segment performance

No explicit breakdown of product segment financial performance with absolute values and revenue contribution percentages was provided in the transcript. Consolidated Q2 26 results are as follows: total shipments of 131 thousand tons (6% sequential increase), net sales of $752 million ($103 million sequential increase), reported net income of $249 million ($2.39 per share), adjusted net income of $257 million ($2.46 per share), and adjusted EBITDA of $327 million ($96 million sequential increase). The adjusted EBITDA increase was driven by $95 million from higher LME and regional premium pricing, and $8 million from higher volume and improved sales mix.

Risks & headwinds

- Post-restart instability at the full-capacity Mt. Holly plant is expected to create a modest negative impact on Q3 26 production volumes, though management expects the issue to be fully resolved by the end of Q3 with no impact beyond that quarter. • The pace of production recovery for curtailed Middle Eastern aluminum capacity remains uncertain, and further disruptions to Strait of Hormuz transit could delay restarts further. • Jamalco continues to face ongoing modest headwinds to production volumes and costs from lower-quality bauxite at some of its mining areas, with full resolution of the issue not expected for another two quarters. • The new Oklahoma smelter project faces local community pushback and debates, requiring ongoing stakeholder engagement to address concerns. Final energy contract and project financing negotiations are still ongoing, with final terms not yet confirmed. • Full rulemaking for the new executive order tariff benefit has not yet been released by the Commerce Department, so final details of the benefit remain pending.

Analyst Q&A

• Q: Nick Giles (B. Riley) asked how Century will source the import quota under the new executive order, the scale of the expected benefit, and what updates exist for the Oklahoma project's DOE grant and overall financing. /

  A: Century will source the 300 thousand ton annual import quota from multiple sources, including its own Iceland production and other external suppliers, and will provide full details once Commerce releases final program rules. The benefit equals the difference between the 25% reduced tariff and 50% baseline tariff per ton of imports, which is material for the full 300 thousand ton quota. The $500 million DOE grant remains secured, with payout tied to project investment milestones as previously communicated. Century is in active discussions with multiple financing sources, including potential government funding, and will release details once terms are finalized.

• Q: Katja Jancic (BMO) asked how Century is prioritizing shareholder returns now that its balance sheet is very strong with cash exceeding total debt, and if the Q4 26 transformer installation at Grundartangi will cause production interruptions. /

  A: Century's capital allocation priority order is: maintain cyclical liquidity, fund required sustaining capital, pursue organic growth opportunities (led by the Oklahoma smelter). Management expects to have sufficient cash to fund the Oklahoma project's equity requirement and pursue additional priorities including shareholder returns once FID details are finalized. The transformer installation will not cause production interruptions due to existing redundancy with repaired units; once installed, it will allow Grundartangi to return to its full normalized production run rate from the current slightly reduced amperage level.

• Q: Timna Tanners (Wells Fargo) asked if the completed Mt. Holly expansion is eligible for the new executive order tariff benefit, how large the impact of Mt. Holly's current post-restart instability is, and how Century is addressing local pushback on the Oklahoma project. /

  A: Mt. Holly is not expected to be eligible for the program, as the benefit is designed for new projects under construction to offset import costs during development; Mt. Holly's expansion is already complete. The instability impact is modest, fully included in the published Q3 guidance, and is expected to be fully resolved by the end of Q3, with a volume uplift coming in Q4. Century is working closely with local Oklahoma communities to address concerns about the smelter, and is confident the project poses no harm and will deliver substantial local economic and job benefits, so the project remains on track.

• Q: Matthew Key (Texas Capital) asked how large the long-term financial benefit of Jamalco's new TG 4 power turbine is, and if benefits only accrue during outages. /

  A: The benefit is permanent, not just for outage events. TG 4 allows Jamal to operate fully on self-generated power and eliminate expensive, unreliable grid purchases, resulting in an expected long-term cost saving of approximately $20 per ton of production. The cost benefit has already been included in the published Q3 guidance.