BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) Earnings
BlackSky Technology Inc. is expected to report next earnings on November 5, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $-0.26. BKSY has beaten EPS estimates in 5 of its last 11 reported quarters (average surprise -41.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $-0.38 | $-0.54 | -43.3% | $33M | +8.4% |
| May 7, 2026 | $-0.37 | $-0.82 | -121.6% | $21M | -24.7% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $-0.37 | $-0.35 | +5.4% | $20M | -47.2% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $-0.49 | $-0.52 | -6.1% | $22M | -24.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | $-0.47 | $-0.42 | +10.6% | $30M | +1.0% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | $-0.28 | $-0.39 | -39.3% | $30M | +6.6% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $-0.61 | $-0.66 | -8.2% | $23M | -34.1% |
| Aug 8, 2024 | $-0.72 | $-0.48 | +33.3% | $25M | -1.7% |
| Feb 28, 2024 | $-0.72 | $-0.40 | +44.4% | $36M | +34.6% |
| Mar 7, 2023 | $-1.12 | $-1.04 | +7.1% | $19M | -1.5% |
| Aug 10, 2022 | $-0.20 | $-1.76 | -780.0% | $15M | +3.8% |
| May 11, 2022 | — | $-1.36 | — | $14M | +26.3% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 6, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Overall Business Milestone and Momentum: Management confirmed Q2 2026 marked an inflection point for the business, with Gen 3 satellite technology driving accelerated top-line and bottom-line growth. The firm reached year-to-date bookings of up to $200 million, grew international revenue 200% year-over-year, and strengthened its balance sheet via a $150 million capital raise that brought total liquidity to over $325 million. The Gen 3 constellation has a year of proven on-orbit operation, delivering 35cm high-resolution imaging at ~1/5 the cost of legacy satellite platforms. Gen 3-related offerings drive 90% of the firm's current growth at attractive margins. - Segment Specific Operational Progress: The firm is on track to launch two additional commercial Gen 3 satellites in Q3 2026, reaching a total of 8 Gen 3 satellites on-orbit by end of 2026, with 20 Gen 3 satellites currently in the production pipeline. Management has achieved operating leverage via a capital-efficient, optimized constellation strategy that delivers incremental earnings growth as subscription revenue scales. The AROS next-generation mapping satellite program development is accelerated by the NRO contract award, with a targeted 2028 launch, designed to fill a coming market capacity gap from retiring legacy mapping satellites. - Strategic Flywheel Model: Management has established a mutually reinforcing growth model: high-margin recurring revenue from space-based intelligence services expands strategic customer relationships and funds operations; Mission Solutions delivers sovereign satellite solutions to drive additional growth and long-term recurring revenue; customer-funded advanced technology programs accelerate innovation and extend technological leadership, creating a capital-efficient flywheel for sustained long-term growth.
Guidance
- Management reaffirmed the full year 2026 guidance that was updated in May 2026, with no upward or downward revision following the strong Q2 performance. - Full year 2026 revenue is guided to between $130 million and $150 million. - Full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is guided to between $12 million and $24 million. - Full year 2026 capital expenditures are guided to between $50 million and $60 million, with year-to-date capital expenditures of ~$31 million at the end of Q2, which was in line with expectations.
Segment performance
Black Sky Technology reported total Q2 2026 revenue of $33.3 million, a 50% year-over-year increase and 60% sequential increase from Q1 2026. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $4.7 million, a $7.5 million year-over-year improvement, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.2% on total revenue. The firm has three core business segments: 1) Space-based Intelligence and AI Services: Delivered $24.5 million in Q2 revenue (73.6% of total revenue), with 50% sequential growth from Q1 and 150% year-over-year growth in international subscription revenue. This segment hit a $100 million annual recurring run rate in Q2, with 14% adjusted EBITDA margins on its $33 million of segment revenue. Multi-year international contracts for this segment make up over 80% of the firm's total funded backlog. 2) Mission Solutions: Contributed positive year-over-year revenue growth, driven by execution on sovereign space program delivery milestones. The first sovereign Gen 3 satellite is on track for on-time delivery in 2026. 3) Advanced Technology Programs: Delivered 65% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, driven by new contract awards including an eight-figure U.S. government NRO contract for AROS development.
Risks & headwinds
No specific material new risks or operational failures were discussed on the call. Management noted in the opening disclaimer that all forward-looking statements are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, referencing risks disclosed in the firm's SEC filings and Form 10-K.
Analyst Q&A
Q: The 20 Gen 3 satellites in the production pipeline: how many are for Black Sky's own commercial constellation versus sovereign customers, and what is the rationale for holding pre-built inventory? /
A: The firm targets 12-15 satellites for its own commercial constellation, to deliver hourly revisit service. Some of the 20 in the pipeline are already allocated to contracted sovereign customers, with the remaining held as finished inventory. Holding pre-built inventory lets the firm deliver to new sovereign customers within 12-18 months of contract award, compared to 3-5 years for competitors that build from scratch, creating a major competitive differentiator.
Q: The $8 million sequential step-up in Space-based Intelligence and AI revenue in Q2: does it include any one-time revenue, or is it a sustainable recurring base for future growth, and are there more customer conversions still to come in the second half of 2026? /
A: The entire Q2 step-up is recurring subscription revenue, representing a solid sustainable base for future growth. The increase came from new customers that moved from small pilot programs to seven- and eight-figure subscription contracts, plus existing customers expanding their contracts and transitioning to Gen 3 services. There are more new pilots and customer expansions set to come online in the second half of 2026, so the growth momentum will continue.
Q: The NRO AROS contract: is the NRO funding enough to develop the program, or do you need commercial customer commitments before 2028 launch, and will there be separate satellite designs for government versus commercial use? /
A: The current NRO contract award provides sufficient funding to keep the AROS program on track for 2028 launch, when combined with targeted internal investment. There is already clear market demand from commercial customers for AROS' broad-area mapping capability, and incremental commercial customer announcements will come over time. A single optimized design will serve both government and commercial requirements, building directly on proven Gen 3 technology, reducing development and deployment risk.
Q: With $325 million in total liquidity after the $150 million capital raise, can the firm develop the AROS program independently instead of following a previously planned CapEx-light partnership strategy? /
A: The capital raise was opportunistic to strengthen the balance sheet, and the cash is available if needed. AROS remains a CapEx-light strategy, with the core development program already funded by the eight-figure NRO government contract, so no use of the new cash is required for the current development plan.