Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Earnings
Assured Guaranty Ltd. is expected to report next earnings on November 5, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.71. AGO has beaten EPS estimates in 5 of its last 11 reported quarters (average surprise +17.4% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | $1.51 | $1.23 | -18.5% | $195M | -4.9% |
| May 8, 2026 | $1.50 | $2.50 | +66.7% | $261M | +25.1% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $1.54 | $2.42 | +57.1% | $199M | +1.1% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | $1.57 | $1.01 | -35.7% | $199M | +1.1% |
| May 8, 2025 | $3.15 | $3.18 | +1.0% | $345M | +48.9% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $1.34 | $1.27 | -5.2% | $152M | -23.8% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | $1.18 | $5.75 | +387.3% | $231M | +169.6% |
| Feb 28, 2023 | $0.89 | $0.22 | -75.3% | $305M | +72.4% |
| Aug 3, 2022 | $0.89 | $0.46 | -48.3% | $77M | -55.1% |
| May 5, 2022 | $0.84 | $1.34 | +60.1% | $280M | +59.7% |
| Feb 24, 2022 | $0.79 | $3.88 | +392.4% | $184M | -7.0% |
| Nov 4, 2021 | — | $0.45 | — | $191M | +5.2% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · August 7, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
- Overall Financial Results * Q2 2026 adjusted operating income was $55 million, or $1.23 per share, a 22% increase in adjusted operating income per share from Q2 2025. * Key per-share valuation metrics (shareholders' equity, adjusted operating shareholders' equity, adjusted book value per share) reached record highs at the end of Q2 2026, with adjusted operating shareholders' equity at $129.94 per share and adjusted book value at $189.72 per share. * H1 2026 total PVP was $152 million, a 48% increase from $103 million in H1 2025. * The firm repurchased 554,000 shares for $45 million in Q2 2026 at an average price of $80.68 per share, and returned $17 million in dividends to shareholders. Total share repurchases since 2013 amount to $6 billion, equal to 81% of shares outstanding at the program launch. The quarterly dividend per share has grown from 10 cents to 38 cents over this period. - Credit Rating Updates * S&P, KBRA, and Moody's all affirmed the financial strength ratings of Assured Guaranty's financial guarantee insurance subsidiaries, with stable outlooks, highlighting the firm's strong capital, earnings, liquidity, competitive position, and diversified underwriting approach. - Strategic Priorities * Maintain leadership in U.S. bond insurance while growing financial guarantee business in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, and expanding the annuity reinsurance platform to increase growth and revenue diversification. * Continue disciplined underwriting and risk management to protect policyholders, maintain prudent pricing, and drive shareholder value creation. * Evaluate capital structure optimization opportunities to reward shareholders, support business growth, and protect policyholders. - Operational Pipeline * Early Q3 2026 has already secured transactions expected to generate $42 million in PVP, including large U.S. public finance deals, a primary European toll road, and multiple new-counterparty structured finance transactions.
Guidance
- The firm expects sustained demand for its core financial guarantee products, and sees attractive growth prospects for its annuity reinsurance platform. * Management expects full-year 2026 PVP growth year-over-year, and confirms that the current strong Q3 pipeline points to year-over-year PVP growth in the second half of 2026. * The Assured Life Free annuity reinsurance launch is on track to meet its initial production and income milestones, and management now expects accelerated transaction booking compared to original projections, which will increase near-term capital needs for the segment. * Exploration of a soft capital facility is confirmed to be a 2026 event, and the facility will add flexibility to future capital allocation decisions.
Segment performance
1. Financial Guarantee (U.S. Public Finance): Generated $106 million of Present Value of Premium (PVP) in H1 2026, which exceeded the total company-wide H1 2025 PVP of $103 million. This segment represented 70% of total H1 2026 company PVP. Assured Guaranty remained the top municipal bond insurance provider, insuring $10.1 billion of total par across primary and secondary markets, covering 423 transactions. 2. Financial Guarantee (Global Structured Finance): Produced $35 million of PVP in H1 2026, up 133% from $15 million in H1 2025. This segment represented 23% of total H1 2026 company PVP. Growth was driven by fund finance and life insurance capital management guarantees, with short transaction maturities (a few months to ~2 years) enabling fast capital recycling and faster premium earnings. 3. Financial Guarantee (Non-U.S. Public Finance): Contributed the remaining PVP in H1 2026, with transactions including a UK secondary local authority deal, Spanish regulated utility arrangements, and a French primary social housing transaction. 4. Asset Management / Alternative Investments: The segment holds a 12% inception-to-date annualized internal rate of return (IRR) overall as of Q2 2026, compared to a 4.3% three-year average yield on the firm's fixed maturity portfolio. Q2 2026 results included a $19 million mark-to-market loss on a CLO equity fund investment (reported on a one-quarter lag). The firm continued seeding new investments for SoundPoint Growth. 5. Annuity Reinsurance (Assured Life Free): The platform is on track to meet its initial production and income milestones set at its January 2026 launch, with strong market reception.
Risks & headwinds
- The Brightline transit credit continues to experience liquidity pressure, though no expected losses have exceeded its deferred premium revenue, so no provision impact to adjusted operating income was recorded in Q2 2026. The firm has a long runway (until 2042) to resolve the credit and work with other creditors on a solution. * There were no material developments affecting expected loss scenarios for the Thames Water exposure in Q2 2026, and the firm is working with the new UK administration to implement a previously negotiated solution with creditors and regulators. * Alternative investments are subject to quarterly mark-to-market volatility: the Q2 2026 $19 million CLO equity fund loss reflects market volatility around AI sector risk, and returns are subject to quarterly fluctuations due to reporting lags.
Analyst Q&A
Q: Given increased CLO return volatility, what is the firm’s outlook for higher-yielding alternative investments, and how will the Q2 loss impact Q3 results? /
A: CLO equity is only one component of the diversified alternative investment portfolio. Market volatility will drive temporary up-and-down marks, and the large Q2 loss has already partially reversed. This quarter’s loss does not change management’s long-term positive view of the alternative investment strategy, which has delivered a 12% inception-to-date IRR well above the fixed maturity portfolio yield. The reversal will be reflected in Q3 2026 results due to the one-quarter reporting lag.
Q: Was Q2 share repurchasing above the $30 million guidance opportunistic? Will accelerated Assured Life Free growth constrain future buybacks, and what is the status of the soft capital facility? /
A: The Q2 over-target buyback was opportunistic. Capital allocation is evaluated quarterly: high-return accretive new business growth takes priority over buybacks, and the accelerated Assured Life Free booking timeline will increase near-term capital needs, potentially reducing available capital for buybacks in coming quarters. Soft capital facility exploration is a 2026 event, and it will add greater flexibility for future capital allocation decisions, potentially altering future buyback plans.
Q: How much deferred premium remains for the Brightline credit, and what would trigger a move to surveillance category 3? /
A: A move to surveillance category 3 is a binary change triggered when the firm begins making claim payments. Brightline currently has enough deferred premium to offset all expected loss development, so no income statement impact has been recorded. Brightline has ongoing liquidity constraints but shows year-over-year growth in passengers and revenue, and the firm has decades of runway to resolve the credit as it only needs to make interest payments through 2042. Management remains confident the credit will recover over time.
Q: Can the firm achieve year-over-year PVP growth in the second half of 2026 despite tougher year-ago comparables? /
A: Management confirmed a very strong pipeline across all three financial guarantee lines. Growth is expected in U.S. public finance, global structured finance with new counterparties, and international infrastructure in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, and management is confident in full second half year-over-year PVP growth, with high ROEs and fast capital recycling on new international and structured finance transactions.