Ameren Corporation (AEE) Earnings
Ameren Corporation is expected to report next earnings on November 4, 2026 (in NaN days), with a consensus EPS estimate of $2.27. AEE has beaten EPS estimates in 8 of its last 12 reported quarters (average surprise +4.5% over the last four).
| Report date | EPS est | EPS actual | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | $1.08 | $1.13 | +4.6% | $2.1B | -8.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.17 | $1.28 | +9.4% | $2.2B | -3.0% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $0.77 | $0.78 | +1.3% | $1.8B | +4.0% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $2.11 | $2.17 | +2.8% | $2.7B | +8.7% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.99 | $1.01 | +2.3% | $2.2B | +24.7% |
| May 1, 2025 | $1.07 | $1.07 | +0.0% | $2.1B | +9.4% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | $0.80 | $0.77 | -3.1% | $1.9B | +2.2% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | $0.93 | $0.97 | +4.3% | $1.7B | -9.7% |
| May 2, 2024 | $1.06 | $0.98 | -7.5% | $1.8B | -17.0% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | $0.61 | $0.60 | -1.6% | $1.6B | +0.0% |
| Aug 2, 2023 | $0.80 | $0.90 | +12.4% | $1.8B | -22.7% |
| May 4, 2023 | $0.94 | $1.00 | +6.4% | $2.1B | +5.6% |
Source: company filings + earnings calendar. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Earnings call summary
Q2 FY2026 · July 31, 2026
AI summary of management’s prepared remarks and analyst Q&A. For informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management highlights
### Strategic and Customer Value Progress - Ameren serves 2.5 million electric and over 900,000 natural gas customers across a 64,000 square mile territory in Missouri and Illinois, with a core strategy of delivering reliable, affordable energy through infrastructure investment, policy advocacy, and performance optimization. - Average reliability performance has improved to top quartile, with average rates kept below national and Midwest averages, and the company supports tens of billions of dollars in annual regional economic impact. - Year-to-date 2026 operating performance is strong, with infrastructure investments reducing customer outage frequency and duration during severe weather events in Q2. ### Economic Development and Large Load Growth - The economic development pipeline remains robust: Ameren Missouri has 3.4 gigawatts of executed construction agreements, 2.8 gigawatts of which have signed Energy Services Agreements (ESAs), with an additional 4 gigawatts of projects with completed interconnection studies; some existing ESA customers are exploring expansion. - Google and Amazon have broken ground on data center projects in Ameren Missouri's territory representing a combined $25 billion planned investment, included in the 2.8 gigawatts of signed ESAs. Per Missouri regulation, these customers will pay 100% of their own infrastructure and power costs, and will contribute to grid fixed costs, delivering long-term cost benefits to other customers. - These projects are expected to create thousands of local construction jobs, hundreds of permanent operational roles, billions in local tax revenue, and include millions in committed community benefits for workforce development and energy efficiency programs. - Compared to the original 2026 baseline assumption of 1.2 gigawatts of additional sales by 2030 (6.2% CAGR), the 2.8 gigawatts of signed ESAs represent upside, with material sales ramp starting in H2 2027, and annual sales expected to be 60% higher than 2025 levels by the end of 2029. ### Generation and Transmission Infrastructure - 350 megawatts of new solar generation entered service in 2026, one month ahead of schedule; 2,250 megawatts of approved gas, solar, and battery storage projects are under construction for service in 2027-2028. - CCN requests for ~1,000 additional megawatts of solar and storage (for 2028-2029 service) and a 2.1 gigawatt natural gas combined cycle facility (for 2031 service) have recently been filed; all critical long-lead components for the planned generation fleet have been secured, and gas and labor contracts are executed for simple cycle gas facilities. - An updated Ameren Missouri Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) incorporating the latest large load demand trends will be filed in late September 2026. - Ameren won development rights for all competitive long-range transmission projects (LRTP) in its Illinois service territory for both MISO Tranche 1 and Tranche 2; joint bids for two remaining Iowa-based Tranche 2.1 projects have been submitted, with results expected by November 2026. - Total identified investment opportunity through 2035 now exceeds $71 billion, including recently won LRTP projects, with updates expected after the IRP filing. ### Regulatory and Financial Updates - Ameren Missouri filed a $343 million electric rate review request in June 2026 to recover major reliability and resilience investment costs; the request includes projected data center revenue savings for retail customers and a new discount for low-income customers, leaving overall rates below national and Midwest averages, with an order expected by May 2027. - Ameren Illinois has filed a $31 million annual rate adjustment aligned with ICC staff recommendations, with a decision expected in December 2026; stakeholder engagement is ongoing for its proposed $2.75 billion 2028-2031 electric distribution investment plan, with a decision expected by the end of 2026. - The company maintains a strong balance sheet, with S&P and Moody's reaffirming stable BBB+ and BAA1 credit ratings. It has addressed 2026 equity needs via 2025 forward sales of $600 million in equity, and has sold forward $1.2 billion in common stock year-to-date 2026 under its at-the-market program to meet future equity needs, with a total expected equity need of ~$4 billion from 2026-2030.
Guidance
- 2026 full year earnings per share guidance is maintained at $5.25 to $5.45; year-to-date results are in line with expectations, and management remains focused on delivering 2026 earnings at or above the midpoint of the range. - The prior 5-year plan (2026-2030) expects 6% to 8% compound annual EPS growth, with consistent performance near the upper end of this range driven by 10.6% CAGR in rate-based growth. - Management will update long-term sales forecasts, capital investment plans, financing plans, and long-term earnings growth expectations on the Q3 2026 earnings call, following the September 2026 IRP filing; current pipeline momentum leans toward positive incremental growth compared to the baseline 2026 guidance. - The 10-year investment pipeline will also be updated on the Q3 call to reflect new growth opportunities.
Segment performance
The transcript does not break out financial performance for individual product segments. It only reports consolidated second quarter 2026 earnings of $1.13 per share, compared to $1.01 per share in Q2 2025. Trailing 12-month normalized retail sales at Ameren Missouri increased approximately 1% through June 2026, driven by the commercial customer class. Higher O&M expenses at Ameren Missouri due to increased reliability-focused tree trimming and energy center maintenance partially offset positive earnings drivers.
Risks & headwinds
The call does not explicitly discuss material operational failures or new substantive unmitigated risks. Management noted that non-traditional project delivery (owner-engineer structure instead of traditional EPC for the 2.1 gigawatt combined cycle project) includes appropriate risk sharing aligned with current EPC market conditions. Final outcomes for regulatory rate reviews and transmission bid awards remain pending, with outcomes subject to regulatory approval.
Analyst Q&A
Q: What is the timeline and key milestones for converting the 4 gigawatts of projects with completed interconnection studies into formal ESAs, and how will this be reflected in planning? /
A: Progress on the 2.8 gigawatts of already signed ESAs is ahead of expectations, with Google and Amazon already beginning construction, and some counterparties exploring expansion beyond current planned capacity. Additional potential projects with completed interconnection studies depend on land availability and speed to power, and the company has available land to support further growth. Updated probability and demand projections will be incorporated into the September 2026 IRP filing, with full clarity provided on the Q3 2026 earnings call.
Q: What is the current outlook for updating long-term EPS growth guidance, what milestones are needed before the update, and what insight will be provided on 5-10 year growth durability? /
A: The baseline starting point remains the prior 6% to 8% EPS growth range, with expectations of performance near the upper end driven by 10.6% rate-based CAGR. Current signed 2.8 gigawatts of ESAs and 60% sales growth by 2029 represent clear upside to the original baseline planning assumptions. After incorporating updated sales, generation, transmission, and financing assumptions into the September IRP, a full updated EPS growth outlook will be provided in Q3. Management will also share updated 10-year sales, investment, and generation plans to give visibility into long-term growth durability.
Q: How will the accelerated 60% sales growth ramp by 2029 change existing generation resource plans, and is additional near-term capacity needed? /
A: The original 2025 IRP and baseline generation development plan already included capacity headroom to serve incremental load above the baseline 1.2 gigawatt expectation. The company is actively evaluating pulling forward additional approved resources, as well as adding new incremental resources for both the 5-year and 5-10 year periods to meet the faster load ramp. Additional resources and planning updates will be shared as part of the Q3 2026 guidance update after the IRP filing.
Q: Can the company accelerate development of additional generation to meet faster load growth, and what is the lead time for new dispatchable capacity? /
A: The planned 2.1 gigawatt combined cycle plant already in permitting cannot be accelerated beyond its current 2031 in-service target. The company is evaluating adding smaller, faster-to-develop dispatchable resources including peaking assets, battery storage, solar, and fuel cells, and is also maximizing output of existing generation assets through cost-effective upgrades to meet near-term peak demand needs.